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No importa quien gobierne, América Latina necesita infraestructuras para crecer

Juan Antonio Cuartero. Director de Structuralia.com

América Latina vuelve a crecer. Y lo hará a un ritmo del 2,6% en el periodo de 2018 a 2020 según el último reporte del BID, apenas ligeramente por encima del promedio logrado entre 1960 y 2017, que fue del 2,4 %. Hasta ahí las buenas noticias.

Las no tan buenas son que a este ritmo la región seguirá perdiendo terreno frente a la imparable Asia que crecerá a un promedio del 5% los próximo tres años, e incluso a Europa que crecerá al 3,7% (si se tiene en cuenta no solo la zona euro sino otros países con gran crecimiento como Polonia, los Bálticos o Noruega). Es decir, la diferencia entre los países que se desarrollan rápido y América Latina, seguirá creciendo.

La razón principal para esto no es otra que la moderada inversión, sobre todo en activos productivos y especialmente en infraestructuras. Es importante volver a sacar a la luz esta realidad, y más en un año de fuerte carga electoral en la región donde países como México, Brasil o Colombia cambiarán de presidente.

Ahora bien, quizás lo más importante es que aunque los candidatos sigan prometiendo infraestructuras, la realidad es que el ritmo de la construcción de las mismas es muy bajo, en casi todos los países. Y esto, al final, se transforma en un alto costo cada día, a los ciudadanos y empresas de la región vía costes más altos, menos exportaciones, y por lo tanto menos empleo formal para los ciudadanos y menos beneficios para las empresas.

Son muchos los anuncios de construcción de nuevas vías ferroviarias en Argentina o Brasil, donde el principal problema de su agricultura para competir en el mundo es la falta de infraestructuras de transporte como carreteras, trenes y puertos que permitan sacar el producto a buen precio. Si las hubieras, la agricultura de la pampa o del serrado brasileño no tendrían competencia.

En Perú, por ejemplo, las carreteras planificadas con motivo de los juegos panamericanos probablemente no llegarán a tiempo, y esto es algo muy relevante en una ciudad en la que la congestión viaria hace que que se pierdan muchas horas de trabajo.

Y en México, uno de los líderes mundiales del turismo, se habla de revisar el proyecto del Nuevo Aeropuerto de la ciudad de México. Algo que ya ha puesto nervioso no solo a las empresas implicadas, sino que podría cortar de raíz las excelentes expectativas que el país tiene para su industria turística, que junto a la automotriz, el petróleo y las agricultura es uno de los sectores que más empleo y riqueza crea en el país.

En general, resulta más fácil para los políticos ofrecer otro tipo de ayudas que construir infraestructuras, porque en pocos meses se puede ver el resultado político, mientras que un puerto, aeropuerto o una autopista necesita años para dar resultados. Por ejemplo, las políticas de liberación del sector energético, que sin duda serán muy beneficiosas para México, no darán resultados en términos de empleo y riqueza hasta tiempo después. Pero es lo que hay que hacer. Sobra decir que estos proyectos tienen que ser limpios, competitivos y transparentes, ya que la corrupción en estos proyectos ha sido otro de los problemas habituales en algunos proyectos de región en la pasada década.

Por eso, ver los planes u opiniones de los próximos líderes sobre las infraestructuras planificadas para su mandato permite adivinar, en parte, cuál será el desempeño de un país en su mandato (y en los siguientes). Por supuesto, el éxito depende de más factores, como el escenario internacional o la profesionalidad y criterios técnicos de las infraestructuras planeadas. Y tan importante como eso es la gestión de los mismo en manos profesionales, y no políticas, para que sean ofrezca esos servicios (producción de energía, transporte férreo, o gestiones portuarias) a un precio competitivo. Mejor si los gerentes son ingenieros y profesionales para este objetivo.

Si América Latina aspira a crecer más del 2,6 pronosticado por el BID de forma sostenida a partir de 2020, debe empezar ya a planificar, pero sobre todo a construir, las infraestructuras energéticas, viales, portuarias y aeroportuarias que necesita sin dilación.

Viajando a los denominados “milagros asiáticos” vemos sin demasiado esfuerzo que la principal diferencia con América Latina es que sus infraestructuras son de primer nivel, superando incluso a las europeas o las de EEUU, permitiendo que su industria se codeé con la élite mundial y facilitando que los países sigan creciendo de forma constante en el medio plazo. América Latina ha crecido mucho desde el año 2000, pero la forma de seguir prosperando y consolidando su clase media es con una política decidida en infraestructuras.

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