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¿Puede tu viaje a la playa ayudar a reducir la pobreza?

Mientras el verano llega a su fin en el hemisferio norte una de las preguntas que hemos preguntado y respondido con frecuencia estos días es ¿cómo estuvieron las vacaciones? Nuestras respuestas suelen incluir anécdotas sobre la comida, las personas y los lugares que conocimos. Quizás también podríamos preguntarnos ¿cómo afectaron nuestras vacaciones a las personas y lugares que visitamos?

Después de todo, el turismo es uno de los sectores económicos más grandes a nivel global, ya que genera el 10% del producto interno bruto (PIB) mundial y emplea a uno de cada 10 trabajadores en todo el mundo. Su impacto económico es aún mayor en los países pequeños e insulares de América Latina y el Caribe, donde generó en promedio 18% del PIB y casi 15% del empleo en 2017, y con más de la mitad de los empleos en el sector ocupados por mujeres. Además, el turismo es una fuente importante de divisas para muchas economías. En Jamaica, los ingresos por turismo internacional fueron equivalentes al 56% de las exportaciones totales del país en 2015.

Su relevancia económica parece clara, pero ¿puede el turismo ayudar a reducir la pobreza?

Turismo y reducción de la pobreza

Comencemos por comprender qué es el sector turismo. A diferencia de otras industrias, no es un universo único y claramente identificado. La cadena de suministro involucra una amplia gama de sectores como hoteles, restaurantes, facilidades o actividades turísticas, servicios de transporte y otros proveedores que apoyan el sistema. La contribución de la industria del turismo al crecimiento, la reducción de la pobreza y el desarrollo a largo plazo depende de vínculos económicos, sociales, ambientales e institucionales que son complejos y dinámicos.

Del mismo modo, las inversiones relacionadas con el turismo son diversas, desde la infraestructura y la provisión de servicios públicos básicos, como agua y saneamiento, hasta la creación de capacidades en el sector de la hotelería y el fortalecimiento de la gobernanza del sector turístico. Por lo tanto, comprender los efectos del turismo en toda la economía requiere técnicas de estimación integrales que puedan capturar la totalidad de estas interconexiones.

¿Qué sabemos sobre el impacto del turismo en la reducción de la pobreza? Una revisión de varios estudios que cubren diversos destinos en África, Asia y América Latina revela que entre el 10% al 30% de los gastos de turismo llega a manos de poblaciones pobres. Un estudio en Kenia, de 2017, determina que cuando una economía se caracteriza por sectores de baja calificación e intensivos en mano de obra, hay una alta probabilidad de que el desarrollo del turismo aumente los ingresos entre las poblaciones pobres. Por otro lado, un estudio reciente en Costa Rica y Nicaragua sugiere que un aumento del 1% en el gasto turístico extranjero reduce la pobreza en un 0,58% y un 0,64%, respectivamente, y muestra que el turismo puede reducir más la pobreza que otros sectores como la agricultura en ambos países.

Mayor inversión del sector privado en turismo puede reducir la pobreza

En un estudio reciente de BID Invest, investigamos si un aumento de la inversión privada en infraestructura turística puede tener un impacto en el alivio de la pobreza de Jamaica, una economía que depende en gran medida del turismo. Desarrollamos una herramienta para evaluar el impacto que inversiones privadas en la industria hotelera tienen en toda la economía. Nuestro estudio supone un incremento importante en las inversiones privadas en hoteles de 2018 a 2020 (US$600 millones). Evaluamos cuál es la situación en diferentes escenarios, que asumen un aumento o disminución importante en el gasto del turismo extranjero durante un período de 10 años después de realizar las inversiones privadas. Cada escenario se compara respecto a la proyección de un escenario de referencia o de crecimiento natural.

Nuestros resultados muestran que entre 2018 y 2030, la pobreza en Jamaica podría caer, en promedio, un 2,3% por año en comparación con el escenario de referencia. Esta caída es principalmente impulsada por una disminución en el desempleo y un salario promedio más alto. Esto podría representar que cerca de 120.000 jamaiquinos salgan de la pobreza durante el período de 13 años que proyecta el estudio, lo cual representa aproximadamente el 4% de la población actual. Sin embargo, los resultados no mostraron impactos en términos de desigualdad.

También encontramos impactos diferenciados en el crecimiento del PIB a nivel sectorial. Las industrias de servicios que atienden directamente a los turistas, incluidos los hoteles y restaurantes, están fuertemente estimuladas por la expansión de la inversión privada en turismo. Por el contrario, la presión al alza sobre los precios y el tipo de cambio real conduce a una disminución en el empleo y el valor agregado en la industria manufacturera y la minería, dos de los sectores más orientados a la exportación en Jamaica.

¿Por qué es esto importante? Hallazgos como estos pueden proporcionar información importante a instituciones financieras de desarrollo y a los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe, que buscan desarrollar estrategias de inversión en turismo o políticas que involucren al sector privado. Una comprensión más profunda del potencial de impacto más amplio del sector puede ayudar a orientar mejor las inversiones y garantizar que los beneficios económicos y sociales del turismo lleguen a tantas personas y lugares como sea posible.


Acerca del Autor / Romina Ordoñez

Romina Ordoñez
Romina es Economista del Departamento de Estrategia y Desarrollo de BID Invest en Washington, D.C. Apoya a los equipos de originación de operaciones en los sectores de agronegocios y turismo evaluando el impacto en el desarrollo de los proyectos y desarrollando instrumentos que permiten su posterior supervisión. Adicionalmente, coordina estudios y notas técnicas que contribuyen al diseño de las operaciones, y diseña e implementa evaluaciones de impacto de proyectos innovadores de clientes de BID Invest que tienen impacto en el desarrollo. Tiene más de 10 años de experiencia en el diseño, supervisión y evaluación de proyectos de desarrollo. Anteriormente, ha trabajado en la división de Medio Ambiente, Desarrollo Rural y Manejo de Riesgos de Desastres Naturales (RND) y en la Oficina de Evaluación y Supervisión del BID. También ha coordinado la implementación de experimentos de economía del comportamiento en África. Tiene un Doctorado en Economía Agrícola de la Universidad de Maryland, una Maestría en Políticas Públicas de la Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, una Licenciatura en Economía de la Universidad de Buenos Aires y una tecnicatura en periodismo.

Acerca del Autor / Martín Cicowiez

Martín Cicowiez
Martín Cicowiez es profesor de la Universidad Nacional de La Plata. También es investigador del Centro DE Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) de la misma casa de estudios. Martín cuenta con un doctorado en Economía de la Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Se especializa en la aplicación de modelos computables de equilibrio general para la evaluación de políticas y shocks externos.

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