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¿Cómo tomarle el pulso a una institución financiera?

 

Existen tantas formas de realizar análisis financieros como analistas en el mercado y el tiempo que se invierte en él tiene un costo asociado, indistintamente de si se es consiente del mismo. Por ello, cabe preguntarse: ¿Cuál es una forma óptima de realizar este proceso? Una opción es usar un principio que se utiliza en los cuerpos de rescate, concentrando la atención primero en indicadores claves que consideran las áreas críticas por evaluar. De esta forma, el proceso se torna más eficiente y efectivo.

La semejanza entre el ABC de los cuerpos de rescate y el análisis CAMEL

Las metodologías que buscan definir indicadores claves han sido utilizadas en muchas profesiones. Por ejemplo, en el mundo de la medicina, los cuerpos de rescate utilizan lo que se conoce como el ‘ABC’ por sus siglas en inglés (i.e. vías respiratorias, respiración, y circulación) para atender un paciente en el primer contacto. Estos tres pasos iniciales buscan aumentar las probabilidades de recuperación de cualquier persona en necesidad de primeros auxilios. También buscan evitar que el profesional se concentre en otros indicadores que no son tan críticos para un primer diagnóstico. ¡Sería muy costoso para el paciente que se dedique tiempo a tomarle la temperatura corporal si no se le atiende antes una dificultad respiratoria!

De manera análoga, en el mundo financiero se han desarrollado metodologías para optimizar los análisis y reducir los costos que estos involucran. Por ejemplo, cuando se evalúan empresas, algunos analistas utilizan el análisis DuPont para estudiar la rentabilidad del capital invertido por los accionistas (ROE, por sus siglas en inglés). Este índice se concentra en el margen neto, la rotación de los activos y el apalancamiento financiero para evaluar el estado de la compañía.

Pero, ¿podemos utilizar las mismas variables en el análisis de instituciones financieras? La respuesta es no. La naturaleza de los negocios es distinta, por lo que requiere otros indicadores que permitan “tomar el pulso del paciente”.

CAMEL: una fotografía a la situación financiera de un banco

Una de las metodologías tradicionales para el análisis de instituciones financieras es la que se conoce como CAMEL, por sus siglas en inglés (i.e. capital, activos, administración, ingresos y liquidez). Si bien esta describe áreas críticas a considerar, la herramienta es aún más útil cuando se le asocia con una estructura simple de los estados financieros, pues ayuda a identificar mejor algunos indicadores claves que explican la generación de utilidades.

Esta fórmula permite obtener una imagen rápida de la situación financiera de un banco observando cinco indicadores financieros que se relacionan directa e indirectamente con las áreas críticas de la metodología CAMEL, comenzando con: i) Utilidad Neta; ii) Provisiones para Pérdidas; iii) Gastos Administrativos; iv) Ingresos por Intereses y v) Gastos Financieros.o

Si bien un análisis financiero completo toma por lo general varias horas, estas razones financieras sirven como un primer paso para tener una visión general del banco en pocos minutos. Permite que el analista concentre su atención, en una primera etapa, en indicadores claves que explican la capacidad de generación de utilidades, para luego poder investigar de manera más profunda las áreas que llamaron su atención.

Es común encontrar análisis saturados de descripciones y explicaciones del comportamiento de un gran número de razones financieras, que al final pueden resultar confusos. También, se pueden dar casos aislados, donde una variable que se escape del análisis detallado termine explicando el cambio significativo en las utilidades. Dedicar muchas horas a un análisis no es garantía que se ha considerado todo lo relevante y se debe tener presente que esto tiene un costo financiero asociado. ¿Qué hacer entonces? Una alternativa es empezar con los indicadores financieros aquí presentados e irlos ajustando conforme la experiencia va mostrando otros que expliquen mejor cómo genera utilidades la entidad analizada. Todo esfuerzo por identificar estos indicadores claves, en las respectivas áreas críticas, redundará en una mayor eficiencia y efectividad del analista, así como en mejoras de su diagnóstico y prescripción de las acciones que se deben tomar.


Acerca del Autor / Carlos Otárola

Carlos Otárola
Carlos Otárola es especialista en finanzas y asuntos de riesgo. Se unió al Grupo del BID en 2001, como Oficial de Inversiones, en la oficina de Costa Rica. Ha ocupado varios puestos en la organización en las áreas de originación, supervisión, gestión de riesgos y finanzas. Ha estado involucrado en proyectos corporativos, instituciones financieras, inversiones directas de capital y fondos de inversión desarrollados en América Latina y el Caribe. Ha sido miembro activo de varios comités relacionados con aprobaciones de crédito, supervisión de carteras, finanzas y tesorería. Actualmente se desempeña como Jefe de Análisis de Negocios en BID Invest.

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