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¿Cómo podemos comprender la complejidad de los datos de comercio?

En la actualidad, la cantidad de datos disponibles sobre cualquier tema, reunidos en cualquier sitio, está creciendo mucho más rápido que nuestra capacidad de procesarlos y comprenderlos en profundidad. Esta situación se verifica en muchos campos del conocimiento, pero se da de un modo particular en el caso del comercio internacional. Las estadísticas sobre los flujos de comercio comprenden más de 5.000 categorías de productos para todos los países y llegan incluso a niveles mayores de detalle para muchos. Los aranceles, las barreras no arancelarias al comercio, las preferencias, las reglas de origen y otros aspectos de la política comercial también se presentan con este nivel de detalle y, con el tiempo, pueden variar. En el transcurso de los últimos 25 años, los acuerdos comerciales han proliferado y de este modo han eliminado muchos obstáculos y creado oportunidades, pero han generado, al mismo tiempo, una mayor complejidad.

¿Cuál es el mejor abordaje para entender toda esta información de modo de tener una idea de los patrones y tendencias, diseñar políticas eficaces y eficientes e identificar las oportunidades de negocios a fin de mejorar la vida de los ciudadanos de los países miembros del BID?

Dentro del sistema de información INTrade, agregamos un conjunto de herramientas de visualización de datos interactivos que le permitirán explorar nuestras bases, graficar las series de datos y encontrar respuestas a interrogantes sobre el comercio y la integración en la región.

Perfil-de-país

La primera herramienta es el Perfil de país. Esta herramienta, que está disponible para cada uno de los 26 países prestatarios del BID, recopila una vasta cantidad de indicadores para cada uno de ellos y los muestra todos juntos para brindar un panorama amplio de su estructura, desempeño y políticas comerciales. El perfil de país identifica a los principales socios en términos de exportaciones e importaciones, los productos de exportación más importantes, las tasas arancelarias promedio y los picos arancelarios, las tendencias sectoriales a lo largo del tiempo, así como un mapa de socios en acuerdos comerciales y del grado de liberalización del comercio con cada uno de ellos. Muchos de los gráficos que componen este perfil son interactivos y pueden abrirse por separado para explorar más a fondo los datos e indicadores incluidos en ellos.

La siguiente es una herramienta (¡la más nueva!) para explorar los desarrollos más recientes en los flujos de comercio internacional. Las Estimaciones de las tendencias comerciales, que se basan en una publicación semestral, proporcionan el panorama más actualizado del crecimiento de las exportaciones en los países de la región y presentan datos desagregados a nivel de flujos comerciales bilaterales que explican el crecimiento (o la contracción) de las exportaciones regionales. Esta herramienta ofrece tanto visualizaciones de mapas como la posibilidad de descargar los datos crudos para quienes quieran estudiarlos en mayor profundidad.

Una tercera herramienta de visualización da acceso a la base de datos subyacente de los flujos comerciales de los países de ALC (América Latina y el Caribe). La herramientaComercio bilateral muestra un mapa de las exportaciones, importaciones y balanza comercial de cada país de la región para los últimos 20 años. Esta herramienta tiene controles que permiten analizar los patrones y las tendencias del comercio para más de 5.000 categorías de productos (hasta el nivel de subpartida a 6 dígitos del Sistema Armonizado), e identificar los principales destinos de exportación y orígenes de las importaciones.

Otra herramienta muestra el panorama del Crecimiento anual de las exportaciones para cada uno de los últimos 20 años, y permite ver gráficos animados. Así, puede verse cómo el comercio crece de forma desigual a fines de la década del 1990, se tambalea durante la crisis asiática de 1998-1999, se recupera pero vuelve a tropezar en América del Sur durante la crisis argentina de 2001-2002, y luego se expande vigorosamente hasta la crisis financiera mundial de 2008-2009, después de la cual las exportaciones se recuperan para luego estancarse y volver a caer con el comienzo del colapso de los precios de los productos básicos a partir de 2012.

La herramienta Dirección del comercio muestra mapas de los principales socios comerciales de cada país de ALC y su evolución en el tiempo mediante una animación. Por ejemplo, en la década del 2000, se destaca el crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de varios países de América del Sur a China —y el crecimiento de China también como fuente de importaciones de casi todos los demás países. La herramienta Balanza comercialmuestra la evolución de las exportaciones e importaciones —simultáneamente— por sector durante los últimos 23 años. Seleccione un sector y haga clic en él para ver su contribución a la balanza comercial del país a lo largo del tiempo. La herramienta Composición por socio/sector presenta un mapa de árbol que combina el análisis de los principales productos y hacia qué destinos se exportan, o los principales destinos y qué productos compran. Se pueden obtener datos más desagregados haciendo clic en un segmento para ver con mayor nivel de detalle qué productos o qué socios impulsan el intercambio comercial.

Las dos últimas herramientas dan acceso a las bases de datos sobre política comercial. La herramienta Acuerdos comerciales y de integración presenta mapas de los diferentes tipos de acuerdos y, al igual que varios de los instrumentos anteriores, ofrece la posibilidad de ver animaciones de los gráficos que ilustran la proliferación de estos tratados a lo largo del tiempo. Los círculos que aparecen sobre los países reflejan el número de acuerdos de los que son signatarios; al hacer clic sobre cualquiera de estos, se despliega la lista de acuerdos. Asimismo, al hacer clic en uno de los acuerdos de la lista, se llega a una página que muestra el perfil de ese acuerdo.

Cronogramas-de-reducción-arancelaria-INTrade

La herramienta Cronogramas de reducción arancelaria toma un aspecto de estos acuerdos y resume el lapso previsto para la eliminación preferencial de los aranceles, medido como el porcentaje de productos con aranceles eliminados completamente cada año en el comercio bilateral, desagregados por sección del Sistema Armonizado. Esta herramienta permite comparar la eliminación arancelaria para diferentes secciones dentro de un acuerdo, o dentro de un determinado sector a través de los distintos acuerdos, para un país en particular. Además, se pueden apreciar las preferencias arancelarias otorgadas al país seleccionado o recibidas por este.

Estas herramientas pueden utilizar los datos de INTrade para elaborar innumerables relatos y descripciones acerca del desarrollo de la arquitectura de la integración y el comercio regionales durante el último par de décadas. Invitamos a quienquiera que esté interesado en estos datos a visitar el sitio y explorarlos. Durante los próximos meses, estaremos desarrollando más herramientas de visualización para otros conjuntos de datos e indicadores en el sistema INTrade. ¡Asegúrese de visitarnos seguido para no perderse ninguna novedad! Y suscríbete a nuestro nuevo blog.


Esta entrada fue originalmente publicado en el blog Más allá de las fronteras del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.

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