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Infraestructura inteligente, clave para el desarrollo sostenible

bid-cambio-climatico¿Recordaremos el 2015 como un hito en los esfuerzos de la humanidad por resolver problemas globales o simplemente como otro capítulo más en la historia de la inercia colectiva?

La respuesta a esa pregunta podría estar en miles de proyectos  de construcción que pronto se materializarán alrededor del planeta.

Los ambiciosos acuerdos internacionales ratificados el año pasado, los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible de la ONU (ODS) y el Acuerdo de Clima de París, reflejan la decisión histórica de forjar un mundo que reconcilie la necesidad de mejorar el bienestar humano con la realidad del cambio climático.

Los ODS trazan la ruta para eliminar la pobreza y asegurar una mejor vida para todos para el 2030. El acuerdo de París establece metas para estabilizar las emisiones globales de gases de efecto invernadero antes de la segunda mitad de este siglo mediante una rápida transición de modos de transporte, generación de energía y usos de tierra con elevadas emisiones de carbono hacia alternativas más eficientes, menos dependientes de los hidrocarburos y resistentes a los efectos del cambio climático.

Sin embargo, a la hora de reflejar esos compromisos internacionales en sus propios planes y presupuestos, las naciones se enfrentan a decisiones difíciles: ¿carbón o renovables? ¿Autopistas o trenes subterráneos? ¿Expansión de los suburbios o ciudades más compactas?

El problema es que la oportunidad para tomar las decisiones correctas no durará mucho. Los niveles de emisiones presentes y proyectados subrayan la urgencia de implementar el acuerdo de París. A su vez, los proyectos de infraestructura requieren de mucho tiempo tanto en la fase de planeación como de operación. Por ejemplo, diseñar y construir una planta generadora de electricidad toma entre cinco y 15 años y, una vez puesta en marcha, puede llegar a durar medio siglo. Además, 70 por ciento del incremento proyectado en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en  países en vías de desarrollo provendrá de infraestructura aún por construir.

En otras palabras, las decisiones que tomemos en los próximos años sobre nuestra infraestructura podrían determinar nuestra capacidad para alcanzar los objetivos de París, o simplemente condenarnos a un futuro en el que las temperaturas globales aumenten más de 2°C. De darse este último escenario, las condiciones ambientales podrían tornarse tan hostiles que el proceso de desarrollo retrocedería, llevándonos a una situación de mayor pobreza y más conflictos sociales.

Desafortunadamente, para muchos gobiernos la planificación de inversiones en infraestructura suele estar desconectada de las agendas de cambio climático. La actual desaceleración económica amenaza con exacerbar esa división.

En América Latina y el Caribe por ejemplo, el fin del superciclo de las materias primas ha causado una fuerte contracción económica. Los ciudadanos demandan empleo, aumentos salariales y mejoras en todo tipo de servicios públicos, desde el transporte público a la salud. En ese contexto, ¿pueden los gobiernos justificar el uso de recursos públicos de por sí escasos para construir infraestructura de bajas emisiones de carbono y resistente al cambio climático?

Para nosotros, la respuesta es un rotundo sí.  A corto plazo, ese gasto público puede generar demanda de mano de obra y materiales, generando un estímulo que las economías emergentes necesitan desesperadamente. A largo plazo, ayudará a modernizar y aumentar la eficiencia de los sectores energéticos, manufactureros, de transporte y logísticos. A su vez, los países ganarían en productividad y competitividad, dinamizando sus propios motores de crecimiento.

La convergencia de esas dos necesidades crea una extraordinaria oportunidad para tomar la dirección  correcta. Ya contamos con varios de los factores necesarios para expandir radicalmente nuestra infraestructura sostenible. Las tasas de interés internacionales permanecen en mínimos históricos. Los administradores de billones de dólares en fondos de inversión y pensiones están buscando inversiones con retornos predecibles. Varias tecnologías críticas, como la generación solar a gran escala o el transporte limpio, han madurado y continúan abaratándose.

En muchos países, lo que falta son políticas, instituciones y socios financieros que permitan generar una cartera de proyectos de infraestructura inteligente como parques eólicos, sistemas de autobuses de tránsito rápido o plantas geotérmicas.

La banca comercial y los inversionistas privados no están familiarizados con este tipo de proyectos en mercados emergentes, por lo cual se muestran reacios a ponerse a la vanguardia. En cambio, la banca de desarrollo multilateral tiene décadas de experiencia en planificar y ejecutar proyectos de infraestructura complejos. También tiene la credibilidad para actuar como mediadora desinteresada entre los gobiernos, los inversionistas y la sociedad civil.

En París, seis de los principales bancos de desarrollo del mundo se comprometieron a ampliar su financiamiento para proyectos relacionados con el cambio climático. Esos recursos representan una pequeña fracción de la masa financiera necesaria para alcanzar los objetivos de París, pero podrían tener un poderoso efecto demostrativo, alentando a otras entidades financieras a sumarse. El Banco Asiático de Inversión en Infraestructura, el Nuevo Banco de Desarrollo de los BRICS o la CAF, por ejemplo, se avendrían a cofinanciar proyectos de infraestructura complejos si pueden colaborar con otras multilaterales.

Sobre la base de una robusta estructura institucional de financiamiento multilateral, podrían movilizarse recursos privados a tal escala que los países podrían cumplir con sus compromisos de París al tiempo que atienden las necesidades de desarrollo de sus ciudadanos.

En los próximos meses, tenemos ante nosotros una oportunidad sin precedentes que podrá ser aprovechada o desperdiciada en los directorios de las instituciones multilaterales. Los gobiernos prestatarios necesitan priorizar la infraestructura inteligente en sus carteras de proyectos como la clave para garantizar el desarrollo sostenible y la reducción de la pobreza. Las naciones donantes, por su parte, deben hacer valer su participación en el capital de estas instituciones y hacer todo lo posible por facilitar el financiamiento de tales proyectos.

De lo contrario, en el futuro recordaremos el 2015 apenas como un año de buenas intenciones.

Esta entrada fue originalmente publicada por El País.


Esta columna fue originalmente publicada en el blog de Cambio Climático del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo BID.

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