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¿Luces encendidas? ¿Cuánta energía es necesaria para abastecer a América Latina y el Caribe al 2040?

Es posible que no la veas, pero sabes que está ahí. Ya sea porque la usamos para que funcionen nuestros hogares o nuestras industrias, o porque la utilizamos en nuestros sistemas de transporte, dependemos de ella. La energía se ha convertido en algo  tan esencial como el agua en las sociedades modernas y es indispensable para nuestra vida.

 

Nuestro estudio más reciente: “¿Luces encendidas? Necesidades de energía en América Latina y el Caribe al 2040 “tiene la intención de estimar la cantidad de energía que se necesita en nuestra región. Estimamos que la demanda total de energía primaria en toda la región podría aumentar más del 80% para el 2040, a una tasa promedio anual de 2.2%, alcanzando más de 1.538 Millones de toneladas equivalentes de petróleo (Mtep). Sin embargo, la demanda de energía proyectada en la región al 2040 será muy inferior a la demanda de energía primaria de hoy en día en países como Estados Unidos y China, estimada en 2.215 Mtep y 2.469 Mtep, respectivamente.

Las seis economías más grandes de la región, Brasil, México, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile y Colombia continuarán dominando la tendencia del uso energético. Más del 83% del incremento total de la demanda de energía primaria al 2040 se estima que vendrá de estos países. . Las necesidades de energía primaria de Brasil se expandirán, en promedio, 2.5% anual, de 294 Mtep en 2013 a 577 Mtep en 2040. Las necesidades de México crecerán aún más rápido, a 2.8% por año, de 191 Mtep en 2013 a 400 Mtep. Se proyecta que el uso de energía aumente más rápidamente en Chile y Colombia debido principalmente a un mayor crecimiento económico y del ingreso per cápita.

El siguiente gráfico ofrece un panorama del futuro de la energía en la región. Para la región en su conjunto, el uso de energía per cápita crecerá de 1,4 tep en 2013 a 2,0 en 2040. Mucho más bajo que el uso de energía per cápita en países de altos ingresos hoy en día (4.2 tep). Sin embargo, todavía existirán  grandes diferencias en el uso de energía per cápita entre los países de la región. Por ejemplo, en Brasil cada persona utilizará en promedio 2,44 tep de energía primaria en 2040 , mientras que Chile utilizará más del doble del promedio de la región, llegando a más de 4,66 tep para el final del período proyectado.

La demanda de electricidad en LAC crecerá rápidamente

Se espera que las necesidades eléctricas regionales aumenten más de 91% para el 2040, alcanzando más de 2.970 Teravatio – hora (TWh) – creciendo a una tasa promedio anual de 2.4%. Mantener las luces encendidas para todos significa que la región tendrá que añadir cerca de 1.500 TWh para satisfacer sus necesidades adicionales de electricidad. En términos generales, esta cifra equivale a 18 veces la totalidad de  la electricidad generada en 2014 por la mayor central hidroeléctrica de la región, que es la tercera más grande en todo el mundo, la represa de Itaipú de Brasil y Paraguay. Este estudio señala la necesidad de planificar una cantidad sin precedentes de nueva infraestructura energética  capaz de satisfacer  las futuras necesidades.

 

Lógicamente, la siguiente pregunta que uno se haría es: ¿cómo vamos a cubrir las necesidades energéticas estimadas en los países de la región? ¿Serán las fuentes de energía renovables no-convencionales, como la solar y la eólica, capaces de satisfacer nuestras necesidades y superar a los combustibles fósiles convencionales como las fuentes de energía más importantes? ¿Dependerán  los países de América Latina y el Caribe mucho más de los combustibles fósiles? ¿Hacia dónde debería enfocar la región sus esfuerzos? Todas estas preguntas continúan sin responderse. Sin embargo, las respuestas dependerán, en gran medida, de la voluntad política de los gobiernos para llegar a acuerdos sobre objetivos de emisiones. En pocas palabras, las respuestas poco podrían responder  a retornos financieros – la política y las normas sociales están llamadas  a determinar  la combinación futura de la matriz energética regional.

Sin lugar a dudas, cumplir con los requerimientos y necesidades de energía y electricidad implican enormes desafíos. De una manera u otra, cada fuente de energía plantea importantes impactos medioambientales o sociales. Minimizar esos impactos y al mismo tiempo proveer energía asequible y confiable para todos se convierte en nuestro mayor desafío.  Para obtener más información acerca de este problema, descargue nuestra publicación aquí.


 

Esta columna fue originalmente publicada en el Blog Energía para el futuro del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo BID.

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