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Baja el petróleo, ¿sube el desempleo?

Foto: Boegh

Foto: Boegh

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Los medios de comunicación han estado dedicados en los últimos meses a contarnos cómo el precio del petróleo está bajando: un barril vale ahora menos de la mitad que el año pasado. A ello hay que añadirle la amenaza de que los precios de los minerales sigan cayendo, lo que hace que las perspectivas económicas paraAmérica Latina y el Caribe se vean cada día menos halagadoras. Muchas personas en nuestra región dependen directa o indirectamente en su trabajo de los precios de las materias primas, ya que bastantes economías de nuestros países viven en buena medida de ellas. El escenario ha cambiado: los elevados precios que estos últimos años posibilitaron más gasto social y una mayor inversión pública han quedado atrás.

¿Qué cambia con la bajada del petróleo? Paradójicamente, un descenso de estosprecios como el que venimos observando también genera nuevos empleos y, por ello, también tiene su lado positivo. El problema subyace en el hecho de que las habilidades de los grupos que pueden quedarse sin empleo no suelen ser las mismas que se demandan para los nuevos trabajos. Por ello, el mayor riesgo es que las tasas de desempleo se incrementen. Ante esto, ¿qué pueden hacer los gobiernos e instituciones públicas para ayudar?

Si analizamos la situación que propicia la caída del precio del petróleo, existe un paralelismo interesante con lo que sucede cuando en los países se aplican los tratados de libre comercio (TLC). Un TLC genera nuevos empleos, pero tambiéndestruye otros. En ese contexto existen programas como el STAA (Strenghtening Trade Adjustment Assistance) de Estados Unidos, dedicado al reajuste del mercado laboral. Estos programas ofrecen apoyo económico a los trabajadores desplazados, al mismo tiempo que los empujan a obtener mediante capacitación nuevashabilidades en los sectores que están generando nuevos empleos. Se trata de reconvertir a quienes han quedado desempleados para que puedan encontrar acomodo en nuevos empleos.

Ese mismo modelo puede ser modificado para ofrecer algunos beneficios a los trabajadores desplazados y apoyarlos a obtener las habilidades que requiere el mercado en el nuevo contexto. En general, estos programas requieren no sólo políticas activas de empleo (capacitación) sino de apoyo económico durante el desempleo. También son distintos de los programas clásicos de capacitación para la inserción laboral que mencionaba en otros artículos en el tiempo de capacitación necesario para un proceso que podemos definir como readiestramiento.

Su contexto es distinto al de los programas de protección de empleo, porque lastimosamente sabemos que las materias primas tardan mucho tiempo en recuperar su precio y la mayoría de los trabajadores no puede volver rápidamente al sector en el que estaban. Esto es lo que justifica un proceso de reinserción con nuevas habilidades que les permita no sólo tener una fuente de ingreso, sino aportar riqueza a la economía del país. Una vez más hablamos de políticas sociales con perspectiva económica que permiten tener impactos sociales positivos de la misma forma que tienen impactos económicos positivos. Con este tipo de programas se pueden minimizar las consecuencias negativas que, si nadie hace nada, tendrá esta caída de precios en las economías de nuestra región.


Esta columna fue originalmente publicada en el Blog Factor Trabajo del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo BID.

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  1. ME PARECE UNA NOTICIA RELEVANTE ANTE EL HECHO DEL DESEMPLEO, PUES LA BAJA DEL PRECIO DEL PETRÓLEO PRODUCE NUEVOS EMPLEOS PERO, SURGE LA NECESIDAD DE QUE, LOS TRABAJADORES ESTÉN CAPACITADOS Y TENGAN HABILIDADES PARA DESEMPEÑARSE EN SUS NUEVOS TRABAJOS, LO QUE PRODUCE UNA MAYOR TASA DE DESEMPLEO POR FALTA DE PROGRAMAS QUE AYUDEN A LOS MISMOS.

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