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Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo
Región en Blanco y Negro

Principales desafíos de Centroamérica en 2014

El contexto internacional para 2014 continuará marcado por bajas tasas de crecimiento económico, como resultado de una muy débil mejora en el empleo, la poca confianza en el sector financiero internacional y la brusca consolidación fiscal en muchas economías avanzadas, entre ellas Estados Unidos. En este año, la mayor parte de los estímulos al crecimiento económico mundial provendrá de los países en vías de desarrollo y del desempeño del conjunto de países denominados Bric (Brasil, Rusia, India y China).

Siendo los países centroamericanos, economías dependientes del contexto internacional, por el impacto que este tiene en su comercio exterior, en las posibilidades de atracción de inversión extranjera directa, en el turismo y en las remesas familiares, 2014 se caracterizará por un crecimiento real promedio de 3.8%, similar al de 2013. Nicaragua y Panamá serán los países más pujantes en términos económicos, con tasas de crecimiento de 4 y 6.9%, respectivamente, mientras las economías con menor dinamismo económico serán El Salvador (1.6%) ―país con más de 15 años de crecer, en promedio, menos de 2% anual―, Honduras (2.8%) y Guatemala (3.4%). Costa Rica y Guatemala continuarán siendo las economías más grandes, aportando cerca del 50% del producto interno bruto regional que este año rebasará los 200 millardos de dólares.

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La realidad socioeconómica de la región continuará generando ingobernabilidad y disminuyendo las posibilidades de desarrollo sostenible. En 2014, de los aproximadamente 45 millones de centroamericanos, cerca del 59% (26.5 millones) continuará viviendo en condiciones de pobreza, mientras un 15% estará en la indigencia. El 94% de los indigentes y el 87% de los pobres centroamericanos se concentrarán en El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras y Nicaragua. Asimismo, aproximadamente el 70% de la población no está afiliado a la seguridad social, mientras que un 25% no tiene acceso a ningún tipo de servicio básico de salud. La universalidad en el acceso a la educación primaria es casi una realidad, pero solamente el 30% de jóvenes están accediendo a los niveles de educación post-primaria, mientras cerca de 2.5 millones de niñas y niños de entre 5 y 18 años de edad, están insertos, de manera precaria, en el mundo laboral.

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En el ámbito político, este año será de transiciones que abrirán la puerta a cambios en los Organismos Ejecutivo y Legislativo de Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica y Panamá. Según las encuestas de percepción, los principales problemas sobre los que los ciudadanos esperan solución están el empleo, la seguridad, la educación y la salud, sin dejar de lado la necesaria lucha contra la corrupción. Sin embargo, una breve revisión de los planes de gobierno de las principales fuerzas políticas de estos países así como de sus discursos electorales, permite advertir que los mismos carecen de la suficiente fundamentación técnica y económica para enfrentar de la mejor forma posible la realidad actual.

La política fiscal continuará estando al centro del debate en toda la región, por temas en común relacionados con la transparencia, la promoción de nuevos privilegios fiscales para sectores económicos relacionados con la industria y los servicios, el fortalecimiento de la administración tributaria y el mejor control del endeudamiento público. Es posible que en El Salvador, Honduras y Costa Rica, se debata sobre posibles reformas fiscales que permitan sanear unas finanzas públicas debilitadas tanto por el impacto de la crisis económica mundial iniciada en 2008 como por la prolongada carencia de acuerdos políticos para hacer de la política fiscal un instrumento efectivo para el fortalecimiento de la democracia, la distribución del bienestar y el crecimiento económico sostenible.

Sin los consensos políticos necesarios para una reforma fiscal, los estados salvadoreño y hondureño se enfrentarán a la imposibilidad de hacer frente a los compromisos básicos de gasto público, lo que para El Salvador podría significar acercarse, en el medio plazo, a una desdolarización forzada. Por su parte, el rápido endeudamiento público de Costa Rica continuará incrementando las tasas de interés domésticas y aumentando los costos para las inversiones privadas, por lo que se generarán percepciones poco optimistas sobre el crecimiento económico y el desarrollo de mediano plazo.

Este año puede ser uma buena oportunidad para conseguir acuerdos sociales y políticos que permitan comenzar a cambiar el rostro actual de Centroamérica ―de bajo crecimiento, pobreza y alta ingobernabilidad―. Todo dependerá de la responsabilidad con que los políticos, los gremios empresariales y de trabajadores, y los ciudadanos en general, asuman sus responsabilidades en el diseño y la puesta en marcha de una Centroamérica diferente.

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