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Gestión Eficaz de los Riesgos del Proyecto

Ejercicio: Describa cómo gestionó el riesgo el equipo de dirección del proyecto en siete párrafos, usando estas palabras clave:

1)      organización ejecutora, aversión al riesgo, interesados, comité de gestión de riesgos, solo amenazas no oportunidades, RBS, plantillas de registro de riesgos-problemas-supuestos, reuniones de identificación, reuniones de seguimiento

2)      brainstorming, 25 riesgos, 10 supuestos, riesgos categorizados, problemas ocurridos en el pasado

3)      análisis cualitativo, matriz de probabilidad e impacto, versión inicial del registro de riesgos, riesgo R: probabilidad-impacto-importancia

4)      análisis cuantitativo, valor monetario esperado, reservas de contingencia

5)      aprobar acción de respuesta, actividades de mitigación-contingencia

6)      el riesgo R se materializó, impacto minimizado, disparadores

7)      cierre del proyecto, versión final del registro de riesgos

Solución:

1. La organización ejecutora, que tiene un perfil de aversión al riesgo, tiene como política que todos los proyectos con presupuesto superior a 250.000€, como es de este, sean supervisados por un Comité de Gestión de Riesgos. Tres interesados tienen mucho poder y poco interés en el proyecto. Otros dos de ellos tienen intereses contrapuestos. En la reunión para elaborar el plan de gestión de riesgos, el equipo de gestión decidió que en este caso se dedicaría el esfuerzo de gestión a para tratar solo amenazas, no oportunidades. Se decidió usar la Estructura de Desglose de Riesgos (RBS) facilitada por la PMO. Se recopilaron las plantillas de registro de riesgos a utilizar y cómo se registrarían los problemas y los supuestos. Se decidieron las fechas y los expertos a convocar en tres reuniones de identificación de riesgos. Se decidió que en todas las reuniones de seguimiento se trataría el registro de riesgos actualizado con los 10 riesgos más importantes en ese momento.

2. Al concluir las reuniones de brainstorming con expertos se obtuvo una lista de 25 riesgos (que se podrían gestionar proactivamente) y otros 10 supuestos (fuera de la zona de control del equipo de gestión). El equipo se aseguró de que se habían considerado los riesgos categorizados por la organización y los problemas ocurridos en el pasado en proyectos parecidos.

3. En el análisis cualitativo se utilizó una matriz de probabilidad e impacto. Se ordenó la lista de riesgos y se preparó una versión inicial del registro de riesgos. En una fila del registro de riesgos podía leerse la descripción básica de un riesgo concreto, llamémoslo riesgo R: se calificó su probabilidad como “alta” y su impacto como “muy alto”, por lo que quedó arriba de la lista, entre los más importantes.

4. El análisis del valor monetario esperado sirvió para establecer las reservas de contingencia. El análisis cuantitativo del riesgo R determinó una exposición individual de 30.000€, resultado de multiplicar su probabilidad por el valor económico de su impacto (0,25 x 120.000€).

5. El comité de gestión de riesgos aprobó la acción de respuesta al riesgo R propuesta por el equipo de gestión, valorada en 10.000€ en actividades de mitigación, previas a la ocurrencia, más 5.000€ en reservas de contingencia. Al tomar la decisión, los miembros del comité eran conscientes de que, si no se materializaba el problema, los 10.000€ gastados para mitigarlo se perderían.

6. Cuando el riesgo R se materializó, el equipo de gestión del proyecto ya lo tenía previsto, con lo que inmediatamente pudo activar la respuesta para contener su impacto, gastando la parte asignada de la reserva para contingencias. El impacto fue minimizado debido a las acciones de mitigación ejecutadas mucho antes. El problema no sorprendió al equipo de gestión, sino que ya lo iban viendo venir debido a la monitorización continua de los indicadores de transición del riesgo, o disparadores.

7. Al cierre del proyecto, en la versión final del registro de riesgos, figuraba el riesgo R como cerrado 2 meses antes. El impacto final para el proyecto, debido a este riesgo fue de 18.000€ de sobrecoste y 5 semanas de retraso.

Escrito por Jose Barato,  Director de PMPeople (www.pmpeople.es), empresa especializada en formación, consultoría y gestión de proyectos; y miembro Junta Directiva PMI Capitulo Madrid.

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