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La esperada subida de tipos en EEUU. Se anticipa un aumento del 0,25%

La larga esperada normalización monetaria en EEUU a través de la primera subida de tipos por parte de la FED desde hace 9 años, 2006, tendrá previsiblemente lugar en el día de hoy. Los mercados esperan con ansia la conferencia de prensa de Yellen con la decisión final, esta tarde en EEUU. La decisión incidir además de en los niveles de cambio de dólar, en el equilibrio de multitud de activos globalmente.

Excelente evolución del empleo en EEUU

El último informe del mes de octubre sobre el mercado de trabajo, registró un empleo robusto por encima en el consenso esperado para el período de 271.000 nuevos empleos. Valorábamos en ese momento, que la cifra suponía motivo suficiente para confirmar la fortaleza en el dinamismo en la creación de empleo en la economía y facilitaba el camino a la FED para proceder con una subida de los tipos de interés el 16 de diciembre.

La pasada semana, volvíamos a conocer la evolución de los nuevos empleos en noviembre, que registraba unos excelentes datos. Si ya la cifra de octubre con 271.000 empleos nuevos se descontó como favorable, la revisión del dato publicado hasta los 298.000, podía entonces considerarse como excepcional. Al mismo tiempo, el empleo en noviembre registraba un aumento de 211.000, nuevamente por encima de las previsiones, que para el mes se situaban en los 200.000

Perspectiva del tipo de cambio eur/usd

En nuestros análisis anteriores y desde el pasado mes de enero de 2015, hemos anticipado un objetivo a corto plazo para el cruce eur/usd de los 1,05.

El pasado jueves día 3, el mercado alcanzaba un mínimo en los 1,0506, en una jornada en la que Draghi daba a conocer las nuevas medidas de expansión monetaria del BCE (publicadas en el pasado artículo), que desde el mercado se descontaban insuficientes al encontrase entre ellas la decisión de no expandir más su balance, lo que provocaba una reacción de apreciación en el tipo de cambio del euro hasta la zona de los 1.10.

La justificación se basaba en la perspectiva de que la economía en la Eurozona registrase una consolidación en su actual moderado crecimiento por encima de lo estimado inicialmente alejando la perspectiva de un mayor debilitamiento, lo que permitiría anticipar una inversión del ciclo antes de los previsto y la estabilidad en el tipo de cambio del euro.

Recordemos que el cálculo de perspectiva de evolución del tipo de cambio a través del cálculo de la PPA (paridad del poder adquisitivo), refleja un valor teórico de su tendencia a medio plazo de los 1,26.

La PPA es una referencia calculada a través de los diferenciales de inflación entre ambas economías, y que en los últimos 10 años ha registrado un diferencial favorable a los EEUU del 0,8% anual, lo que permite estimar esta tendencia apreciatoria a medio plazo de los niveles de cambio favorable a la moneda única.

El actual momento de apreciación en el tipo de cambio del dólar se fundamenta en el diferente momento de ciclo económico, favorable a los EEUU y en el diferencial de tipos de interés favorable al dólar, consecuencia de lo anterior.

Los actuales niveles de cambio de partida, se mantienen en la zona de los 1,09, tras el descenso en la jornada de ayer de una figura (0,0100) en el tipo de cambio desde los 1,10, en lo que se había estabilizado desde el pasado día 9 y que entendemos constituye el techo actual para la cotización.

Nuestra estimación, para una subida de tipos descontada del 0,25%, es favorable a una nueva apreciación en los niveles de cambio favorable al dólar, con un objetivo establecido en el rango 1,05 – 1,03, aunque es recomendable el inicio en la realización de beneficios para niveles de cambio superiores a los 1,06. El nivel inferior de este rango estimado, dependerá de la perspectiva de nuevas subidas para 2016, de su número y de la magnitud de las mismas, que Yellen anuncie o sugiera en la rueda de prensa del día de hoy.

 

Razones añadidas que favorecen la apreciación del dólar frente al euro.

El pasado viernes la OPEP comunicaba la falta de consenso en el objetivo de estabilizar una cuota de producción, lo que provocaba nuevas caídas en el precio del barril de crudo, actualmente para el WT en los 37,12 $ / barril.

La correlación entre los precios del crudo y el dólar han sido altas durante la última década, lo que permite descontar una continuidad en la misma y en consecuencia, una apreciación añadida del tipo de cambio del dólar. Por otra parte, las nuevas entradas de divisas como consecuencia de la venta de crudo, incidirá en esta apreciación de forma añadida. Recordemos que EEUU es el principal productor de petróleo.

Un segundo factor de apoyo al dólar, se soporta sobre el último informe del mercado laboral, que fundamenta además de una subida de tipos en el día de hoy, la posibilidad de que la FED sea optimista en su rueda de prensa, anunciando hasta cuatro alzas de los tipos en 2016.

Como elemento añadido, la valoración menos agresiva que puede hacerse de las últimas medidas adoptadas por el BCE y que dan más margen a la FED para actuaciones monetarias más agresivas, lo que debe favorecer al dólar.

Como cuarto factor, las tensiones actuales en los procesos electorales regionales en Francia, con el avance de la extrema derecha, y generales España este día 20, con unas encuestas que anticipan un gobierno sin mayorías con la entrada de dos nuevos partidos en el congreso, sin trayectoria política previa, lo que podrá dificultar la gobernabilidad en el país y que en conjunto, podrán incidir debilitando la coordinación de la política de la Eurozona, lo que podrá presionar de forma añadida sobre la moneda única.

El débil comportamiento de la inflación global.

 

Por lo que hace referencia al indicador de inflación, segundo factor de incidencia para la FED en su decisión sobre los tipos y que actualmente se descuenta en un 0,2% para el conjunto del año, el contexto internacional condiciona de forma determinante la evolución de su cifra.

La ralentización del crecimiento mundial, derivado principalmente de un mucho más moderado dato de crecimiento en China, presiona directamente sobre los precios de las materias primas a la baja, en promedio un -23% en 2015, con especial incidencia sobre el precio de crudo, un -30,75% en 2015, presionando sobre los precios globales.

En 2015 China se estima que alcanzará un superávit por cuenta corriente de unos 350.000 millones de dólares y su banco central ha vendido reservas por 400.000 millones, por lo que la salida de capitales del país en el conjunto del año, estará próxima a los 750.000 millones.

Durante el boom de liquidez y financiación previos al inicio de la recesión en 2008, el fuerte crecimiento en las reservas del país asiático fue la causa principal que explica la burbuja global de activos. La actual reducción en el volumen de reservas en el país asiático, los tipos próximos al 0% del BCE y de la mayor parte de la deuda soberana de los países desarrollados (negativos en el caso de Alemania), la devaluación del yuan y los reducidos salarios chinos en dólares, que presionan a la baja sobre los precios de sus productos, exportando deflación al resto del mundo, son los principales factores que explican la fuerte presión a la baja sobre los niveles globales de precios.

Los bancos centrales no dejan de mostrar su preocupación a este respecto ante el negativo efecto que este efecto tiene sobre los niveles de inversión y la FED entre ellos, sigue demostrando que es uno de los factores que sigue manteniendo fuera de control, a pesar de la saludable evolución del dinamismo económico, el crecimiento de la economía y el favorable comportamiento del mercado de trabajo en EEUU.

En consecuencia, asistimos a un contexto facilitador de una subida de tipos en la jornada de hoy en EEUU, donde el componente de inflación objetivo, para ambas economías establecida en el 2% a medio plazo, seguirá apareciendo como una meta a alcanzar. Quien, entre ambas zonas económicas, la Eurozona y los EEUU, alcance primero este objetivo, podrá sumar tendencia de apreciación añadida al tipo de cambio de su respectiva moneda.


Eduardo Ascariz / Presidente, economista,
EMC / Economistas en Mercados de Capitales SA.//
Entidad Regulada y Supervisada por la Superintedencia de Valores de Panamá.

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