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Eduardo Ascariz / EMC Markets
Mercado euro/$

La atención centrada en el BCE y su decisión de política expansiva

A pesar de la mejora relativa de las cifras económicas en las últimas semanas en la zona euro, a excepción de la continuidad en la debilitada cifra de inflación, aunque en terreno ya positivo, el BCE en la jornada de ayer tomaba medidas complementarias expansivas orientadas al cumplimiento de su mandado de un objetivo de inflación del 2% a medio plazo.

Entendemos que el BCE quiere con esta medida trasladar al mercado una imagen inequívoca de fiabilidad y certeza, con el objetivo de preservar su eficaz influencia que sus comentarios y compromisos de antuviones mantienen sobre los mercados de capitales y de cara a posteriores posibles necesarias nuevas actuaciones o anuncios de actuaciones.

Sin duda quiere evitar el bochorno de la experiencia que la FED trasladó al mercado el pasado 17 de setiembre y que le costó en ese momento, una pérdida importante de credibilidad que el organismo norteamericano se esmeró en recuperar en semanas posteriores, a través de continuas señales orientativas a los mercados mediante múltiples comparecencias y comunicados. Fueron de tal intensidad, que en el mercado se generó la ocurrencia de que la FED, casi se había constituido en un nuevo indicador económico semanal.

Por otra parte, un contexto que refleja una menor perspectiva en la ya reducida tensión sobre los precios, como consecuencia de nuevos justes a la baja en los precios del crudo y una mayor incertidumbre y debilitamiento del contexto económico internacional, favorecen medidas como las adoptadas en previsión de posibles negativos efectos sobre las economías de la eurozona y los niveles internos de precios.

Entendemos que el BCE se adelanta así a un entorno que considera previsiblemente más débil y que podrá en consecuencia reducir los balances de riesgo de los agentes económicos.

Nuevas medidas adoptadas

Ayer el BCE decidía relajar la política monetaria reduciendo la tasa de depósito en 10 puntos básicos hasta el -0,3%, prorrogando el programa de expansión cuantitativa (QE) hasta marzo de 2017 y ampliando la gama de títulos con opción a compra al incluir deuda pública a local y regional de la zona euro.

Ampliaba igualmente la asignación total en principales operaciones de refinanciación y operaciones de refinanciación a largo plazo (LTRO) a tres meses hasta final de 2017, así como la reinversión de los pagos de capital del programa de compra de activos.

Reacción del mercado

El mercado lo consideró insuficiente y la reacción se reflejó en una apreciación del euro desde nuestra zona objetivo alcanzada de los 1,05 hasta los 1,0950, reacción que por otra parte consideramos no definitiva y que anticipamos un euro que volverá a negociar en la zona de los 1,05 a lo largo de las próximas semanas.

Grado de las medidas

Nuestro punto de vista es que las medidas son adecuadas y mantiene un grado de expansión considerablemente destacable sobre las medidas aplicables hasta ayer, contribuyendo en consecuencia, al mantenimiento de los bajos costos de endeudamiento que favorezcan una continuidad en el sostenimiento del actual moderado pero positivo proceso de recuperación en la zona euro y al mismo tiempo contribuyen a reducir el grado de aversión al riesgo de los inversores.

Los efectos hasta el momento del programa cuantitativo del BCE, han sido positivos sobre los agentes económicos y su capacidad de mejora en la financiación, por lo que las medidas añadidas deberán contribuir a que esta situación favorable aumente.

En consecuencia

El euro pierde parte de su capacidad deprecatoria a corto plazo más allá de los 1,05, nivel de cambio que prevemos volverá a alcanzar.

A partir de este momento, una mejora en las cifras referidas a la eurozona y datos vinculados con el empleo y los tipos de interés en EEUU, serán las variables de referencia observadas desde el mercado para poder anticipar la evolución de los niveles de cambio.

Una mejora en el crecimiento de la zona euro favorecerá la demanda de activos denominados en esta divisa y fortalecerá su nivel de cambio.

En EEUU unos tipos de interés al alza y la mejora del mercado laboral, seguirían contribuyendo a la apreciación del cambio del dólar hacia los niveles de los 1,05 e inferiores. Posiblemente la propia FED no tendrá interés en ver a un dólar más allá de la paridad.

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