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Eduardo Ascariz / EMC Markets
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Yellen reafima la posibilidad de una subida en diciembre.

El dólar mantiene su tendencia de apreciación

YELLEN confirma ante el congreso la existencia de una posibilidad efectiva de subir los tipos en el mes de diciembre, condicionando la misma a la evolución de los datos, (empleo e inflación). La posible apertura en la amplitud del momento en los ciclos económicos y de las políticas monetarias entre la Eurozona y EEUU, inciden favorablemente de forma añadida sobre el dólar, que negocia en niveles de los 1,0840.

Las probabilidades que el mercado otorga ahora a una subida son del 58%, cuando hace apenas un par de semanas, estas se situaban atendiendo a los precios en el mercado de futuros, en un 30%.

Atendiendo a las ultimas últimas cifras publicadas, con un crecimiento del PIB que se redujo al 1.5% anualizado en el tercer trimestre, un crecimiento cero en el sector manufacturero en el último año, una caída de las exportaciones en un 10% en los últimos 10 meses y un número de asalariados no agrícolas que han decepcionado en sus datos de los últimos dos meses, no constituyen cifras que parezcan estar en sintonía con lo que la FED contempla como el escenario de una subida.

Sin embargo, a pesar de la mayor debilidad de los registros en el final de este tercer trimestre, entendemos que se han sentado para las principales cifras, las bases que no tenderán a perforarse en los próximos trimestres. La Fed manteniendo abierta la opción de diciembre, viene a confirmar esta perspectiva.

Dudamos en consecuencia, que el crecimiento del PIB caiga por debajo del 1,5%. Igualmente que tampoco esperamos que el número de asalariados no agrícolas lo haga muy por debajo del rango de los 125.000- 135.000. O que la inflación subyacente PCE, referencia de la FED, registre una cifra inferior a la actual 1,25% interanual.

Ayer, se publicaban ajustes de algunas décimas en los indicadores PMI para Alemania y la Eurozona en Octubre, registros que contrastaban con las leves mejoras en los PMI manufactureros publicados el lunes.

En China el indicador PMI servicios registraba una mejora de 2 puntos hasta los 52, alejándose de la zona de contracción que supone un registro inferior a 50 y trasladando al mercado un fortalecimiento de la perspectiva de asistir a un aterrizaje suave de su economía, síntoma en principio de la eficacia del paquete de medidas expansivas, las ultimas de las cuales eran adoptadas el pasado viernes 23 de octubre por el gobierno y el banco popular chinos. En esa fecha, se reducía el coste del dinero a un año un -0,25%, hasta los 4,35%, la remuneración aplicada a los depósitos, que pasaba desde el 1,75% al 1,5% y se reducía entre el -0,5% y el 1%, dependiendo de los bancos, el coeficiente de reserva.

Ayer en EEUU igualmente los indicadores PMI servicios y compuesto registraban mejoras en el entorno de una décima y el ISM servicios lo hacía en 3 puntos hasta 59. El indicador ADP de empleo registraba un aumento de 182.000 en octubre, siendo la primera cifra de las 3 que se publican esta semana referidas a la evolución del mercado laboral. Hoy conoceremos el dato de demandantes de subsidios de desempleo y mañana viernes el relevante indicador de tasa de desempleo anual, actualmente en el 5,1% y la cifra de asalariados no agrícolas en Octubre, en la que el mercado intentará confirmar una continuidad en el buen momento del sector, al constituir uno de los referentes que determinaran la decisión sobre los tipos de interés por parte de la FED el próximo mes de diciembre.

Una cifra en un intervalo entre los 130.000- 150.000, confirmaría una continuidad en el actual momento de debilidad. Una cifra superior a los 180.000 seria consecuente con la vuelta al dinamismo en el mercado de trabajo y poder anticipar un fortalecimiento del consumo, pilar en el que se soportará el crecimiento en los próximos trimestres ante la perspectiva de una continuidad en la debilidad actual del sector exterior, consecuencia de la depresión del comercio con Europa, Asia y Latino América.

En consecuencia, tipo de cambio en continuidad hacia el objetivo de los 1,05 a corto plazo, fundamentado en una subida de los tipos de interés el próximo mes de diciembre. Hoy se data a conocer en la Eurozona el indicador de ventas minoristas en octubre.


Eduardo Ascariz / Presidente, economista,
EMC / Economistas en Mercados de Capitales SA.//
Entidad Regulada y Supervisada por la Superintedencia de Valores de Panamá.

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