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Eduardo Ascariz / EMC Markets
Mercado euro/$

Retorno a la moderación en el mercado, circunstancia que favorece al dólar

Una breve nota sobre los atentados en París.

El lamentable y atroz atentado perpetrado el pasado viernes día 15 por la noche en París, con el balance hasta el momento de 132 víctima mortales, viene a sumarse a los recientes acontecimientos violentos acaecidos recientemente, como lo son la posible bomba que estalló en pleno vuelo en el avión ruso o las atrocidades registradas en el Líbano y Turquía. El atentado de París sin duda pesará sobre los mercados en las jornadas sucesivas, en forma general de una mayor volatilidad y en concreto, de una mayor presión sobre la moneda única, con más o menos incidencia dependiendo del discurrir de los acontecimientos en la Eurozona al respecto de:

  1. Los cambios en los hábitos y en el comportamiento de los ciudadanos, a través de un menor consumo de ocio, como consecuencia de un aumento de la prudencia y el temor. Una mayor seguridad y controles que tendrá el efecto inmediato de una menor asistencia a eventos, restaurantes, viajes, etc, lo que incidirá en la actividad económica general y especialmente con aquella vinculada a ciertos sectores.
  2. La magnitud de la respuesta militar de Francia y el resto de países aliados a estos ataques, que podrá suponer un giro en las magnitudes de sus presupuestos específicamente el de defensa, aumentando al mismo tiempo el grado global de incertidumbre.

Empleo, inflación y consumo en EEUU y flexibilización monetaria del BCE, variables referencia del mercado

Semana la precedente caracterizada por una continuidad de los datos en EEUU consecuentes con la actual situación de crecimiento sostenido, aunque un empeoramiento de la cifra de déficit presupuestario de octubre, especialmente relevante en un momento en que EEUU e volverá a enfrenar en breve al debate en el congreso sobre el techo de la deuda. Destacar las declaraciones de Charles Evans, presidente de la Fed de Chicago, en la que afirmaba que la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos procederá a subir tipos de interés una vez la economía confirme la fortaleza suficiente para soportar esta acción. Añadió que la entidad debería tener cuidado de no subir tipos ante la existencia del riesgo de tener que volver a bajarlos a corto plazo.

Destacar el dato de reservas de crudo en el país, que se elevó hasta los 4,2 millones de barriles, lo que mantendrá presionados a la bajas los precios del crudo en los mercados internacionales, que seguirá reduciendo de forma negativa, las presiones sobre la inflación.

En este apartado recordar una explicación muy breve de la causa de los actuales deprimidos precios del crudo, que tenderán a mantenerse a corto plazo. Los principales países exportadores de crudo, encabezados por Arabia Saudí, que registra actualmente un déficit presupuestario de casi el 30%, mantienen, a pesar de los bajos precios, un exceso de producción, de oferta, de forma estratégica, con el objetivo último de mantener debilitados los precios de mercado el tiempo suficiente para incidir en los criterios de rentabilidad de las industrias extractivas de métodos alternativos, especialmente el fracking, con el fin de expulsarlos del mercado y poder recuperar los precios a medio plazo.

En la Eurozona las economías europeas continuaron en la semana, reaccionando mejor de lo esperado a un entorno global más débil, gracias principalmente a un euro debilitado y unos costes energéticos más bajos. Draghi en sus últimas declaraciones del jueves, dejaba entrever que las potenciales medidas anunciadas para diciembre, podían posponerse hasta enero, febrero, lo que ayudó al euro en su cotización.

El pasado viernes en el inicio de la sesión de Nueva York, la moneda única recuperaba parte de la caída que mantiene en su actual descendente, condicionada por las cifras publicadas en EEUU, encabezadas por un leve crecimiento registrado en las ventas minoristas en octubre, un peor dato de lo esperado en el indicador de precios a la producción y del subyacente y unos inventarios que crecieron por encima de lo esperado, muy probablemente afectados por el moderada evolución del consumo minorista.

El buen dato del indicador de confianza de los consumidores de la univ. de Michigan de noviembre, 93.1,favorecía una recuperación en la moneda norteamericana.

Evidentemente, los sucesos del pasado viernes por la tarde en Paris, pesarán sobre los mercados en las jornadas sucesivas, a través de una mayor presión sobre la moneda única, de mayor o menor grado a tenor de cómo evolucionen los acontecimientos en la Eurozona.

El escenario para la semana viene fundamentado desde el mercado, por un lado, en seguir descontando entre los datos macro que se publiquen para los EEUU, no surge ninguna cifra sesgada de forma relevante sobre la tendencia la cual permita poner en cuestión la ya confirmada decisión de la FED de subir los tipos de interés el próximo diciembre, decisión que como venimos anticipando, supondrá continuar asistiendo a una paulatina evolución apreciatoria del tipo de cambio del dólar respecto al euro. Nuestro objetivo a corto plazo se mantiene en los 1,05. Las variables de referencia sobre las que centrar la atención, siguen siendo empleo e inflación, seguidas por el dato de consumo, referencia que explica el 70% del PIB del país. La debilidad que continúa mostrando la economía China, entendemos que en este escenario, no deberá ser un elemento distorsionador de la medida de normalización de la FED.

En la Eurozona, el interés de los agentes del mercado se centra en evaluar, de producirse, que medidas añadidas de flexibilización, en qué fecha, diciembre (más probablemente), enero, y de qué magnitud, aplicará el BCE. Entendemos que actuar a la baja, sobre el tipo de facilidad de depósito, esto es, sobre la rentabilidad que el BCE paga a las imposiciones de la banca europea en el organismo, será la principal medida. El objetivo, desincentivar y reorientar hacia la economía productiva, el exceso de liquidez de la zona euro que se redirigía al propio BCE. El pasado viernes se especulaba con medidas añadidas además de la anterior, consistentes en actuaciones sobre el actual programa de compra de bonos, ampliando el tipo de los mismos, que incluiría bonos municipales y de regiones de la Unión. El objetivo último, cumplir el mandato del BCE de una inflación a medo y largo plazo del 2%.

Para hoy lunes, destacar datos del IPC finales para la zona euro. Nuevas declaraciones del presidente del BCE, Draghi, en Madrid. También del BCE declaraciones en París de Coeure. En EE.UU. estadística del NY Empire Manufacturero Atendiendo a las cifras que llegarán a los mercados a los largo de esta semana y referidas a ambas economías, es probable que asistamos a un tono de mercado más moderado, lo que seguirá favoreciendo la evolución alcista de la moneda norteamericana. La entrada de la economía japonesa en recesión, tras el dato negativo de PIB trimestral publicad esta madrugada, el segundo consecutivo, favorecerá de forma añadida el empuje del dólar.


Eduardo Ascariz / Presidente, economista,
EMC / Economistas en Mercados de Capitales SA.//
Entidad Regulada y Supervisada por la Superintedencia de Valores de Panamá.

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