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La decisión de la FED genera incertidumbre y no ayuda a los emergentes

La decisión de la FED genera es incierta?

El inicio de la semana en el cruce del euro dólar se inicia registrando un incremento en el grado de incertidumbre del escenario internacional tras la decisión el pasado jueves de mantenimiento de los tipos de interés por parte de la FED, la ausencia de precisión y perspectiva sobre las causas concretas y la dinámica que se mantendrá una vez se inicie la normalización monetaria, de la que si se ha trasladado certeza sobre su inicio antes de final de año.

Elecciones en Grecia

Tsipras, que ya no aparece como el anti sistema en estas elecciones, gana la convocatoria con una mayoría relajada, a pesar de que el porcentaje de abstención ascendió al 45% del electorado. En coalición con el partido Griegos Independientes, conseguirán gobernar en mayoría absoluta, lo que aleja el riesgo poselectoral de un desmembramiento del gobierno griego o de la coalición que pudiera poner en riesgo el cumplimiento de las condiciones del tercer rescate griego por parte de la Unión Europea.

El primer pago del total del rescate de 85.000 millones se producirá una vez que en el plazo de tres días Tsipras forme gobierno.

Las muy difíciles condiciones económicas del país heleno, en recesión, las fuertes dificultades para poder alcanzar el objetivo de superávit primario objetivo a final de 2015, El reducido atractivo del país para la inversión extranjera, el endurecimiento del contexto económico internacional… Son entre otras, algunas de las causas que siguen manteniendo el riesgo en un 30% de una salida de Grecia de la unión monetaria en el horizonte temporal de un año y que podrán presionar sobre la moneda única una vez comience a publicarse nuevas cifras que permiten descontar la evolución de los diferentes indicadores económicos.

EEUU y tipos de interés

La decisión de la FED del pasado jueves no ha supuesto para los mercados encontrar la certidumbre que buscaba en una variable que ha estado condicionando el tipo de cambio desde inicios de año.

La decisión ha abierto nuevamente las dudas de si la economía de los Estados Unidos se enfrenta a una perspectiva menos favorable de lo que se anticipaba, principalmente como consecuencia del frenazo en el dinamismo económico global o si realmente la FED se siente condicionada por las medidas se pueda tomar China para evitar que una nueva apreciación en el tipo de cambio del dólar vuelva a afectar a su grado de competitividad Los mercados vuelven a orientar su referencia, por tercera vez este año, esta vez hacia los datos procedentes de la economía asiática a los cuales la Reserva Federal, a nuestro entender en un síntoma de debilidad, ha condicionado la futura decisión sobre los tipos de interés y con el objeto de no afectar más negativamente sobre otras economías emergentes, entre ellas las latino americanas.

Los emergentes y los tipos de la FED

Los efectos de posponer la decisión sobre la actual debilidad de los países emergentes especialmente en América Latina, no son a nuestro entender especialmente favorables a medio plazo sobre sus economías Aunque muy a corto plazo no cabe duda de que la no subida de los tipos interés permite alargar las condiciones actuales de debilidad sin profundizar en la crisis, al no acelerar la salida de capitales y encarecer el coste financiero de la deuda y la presión sobre los tipos de cambio de sus divisas, sin embargo entendemos que no supone una solución para unas economías, las cuales tenderán a seguir debilitándose al presentar grandes incertidumbres a tenor de las necesidades de fuertes, intensas y continuadas reformas estructurales que hasta el momento no se han llevado acabo, desaprovechando la inercia de la favorable dinámica de la economía en los últimos años y unos tipos de interés deprimidos en EEUU y la Eurozona.

La fuerte competitividad de las exportaciones de los países emergentes se ha seguido soportando en unos bajos costes salariales que no permitirán seguir ajustándose para mantener la cuota de mercado internacional. Por otra parte, la continuada y creciente demanda de China, país que concentra casi la totalidad del volumen exportador de materias primas de muchos países de la Region, y como consecuencia, el aumento del precio de las materias primas, han favorecido el crecimiento de una clase media que ha consolidado la demanda y una considerable mejora de la recaudación fiscal, que propiciado en conjunto, el establecimiento de presupuestos sobre dimensionales por parte de muchos gobiernos, que con el reciente drástico ajuste del dinamismo de la economía del país asiático, tenderán a provocar que además de los países que ya lo sufren, otros muchos se enfrenten a desequilibrios en sus saldos por cuenta corriente, situación que en algunos casos, en conjunto con otras circunstancias que se recogen a continuación, podría in extremis, derivar en riesgos de quiebras soberanas en algunos casos. La actual continuada caída en el precio de las materias primas como consecuencia de la sobre oferta y la continuidad en el ajuste en la demanda tras el enfriamiento de la economía China (a pesar de descartarse por el momento un aterrizaje brusco), entendemos seguirá presionando sobre los niveles de ingresos de estas economías.

De forma añadida, la creciente y continuada fuga de capitales, acelerada en este momento por la incertidumbre generada hacia los emergentes por China, cuya entrada inicialmente propició la creación de burbujas de activos, especialmente en el sector inmobiliario de muchos países, tenderá a seguir presionando sobre los precios de estos, poniendo en riesgo su estabilidad y anticipando el caso de un estallido de las burbujas, el aumento de fallidos en las entidades de crédito y la caída del precio de estos activos en sus balances, afectando a su grado de solvencia. En reacción, se comenzará a restringir el crédito, afectando de forma añadida sobre el enfriamiento acelerado drástico de las economías.

La esperada subida de los tipos de interés en EEUU contribuirá a acelerar esta fuga de capitales, encareciendo al mismo tiempo el coste de financiación de la deuda y presionando en consecuencia sobre el tipo de cambio de las monedas de estos países, generando al mismo tiempo inflación, haciendo a estas economías más vulnerables. Argentina supera ya el 30% de inflación, Brasil la cota psicológica del 10%, Uruguay camina en la misma senda hacia el 10%, Venezuela el 100%, Colombia y Chile son las economías más dependientes del precio de las materias primas y finalmente Ecuador, que se enfrenta a una devaluación si la debilidad de los precios del crudo continúan.

Nuevos ajustes de la economía China o una permanencia en el tiempo de la actual debilidad, podrían ser el catalizador para que la situación se convirtiese en insostenible. Este círculo vicioso incidirá en los precios de los activos nuevamente, la solvencia, el crédito, los fallidos, el dinamismo económico… provocando en sus extremos, la aparición de quiebras y rescates de entidades por parte de los gobiernos.

En este escenario, la reacción de los gobiernos conlleva la aplicación de políticas fiscales restrictivas dada la limitación de acometer políticas monetarias expansivas, ante el tamaño de sus bancos centrales, en aquellos países en que estos existen. Todo ello condicionará los potenciales rescates y supondrá que en última instancia, serán los impositores los garantes de sus propios depósitos respondiendo con los mismos. Subidas en los tipos de interés, con el objeto de limitar la sangría en las salidas de capitales, como ya se están produciendo, serán las medidas monetarias aplicadas, lo que condicionará a su vez el crecimiento, aumentando a su vez los costes financieros, debilitando las calificaciones y vuelta a empezar.

La perspectiva, de generarse este catalizador a partir de un debilitamiento añadido de la actividad económica en China, anticipa un periodo extenso de presión sobre las economías emergentes, algunas más afectadas que otras, dependiendo del trayecto del actual momento del ciclo en el que se encuentren. Salir de la senda de la estanflación, conlleva ajustes de los precios relativos, solución complicada a partir de los reducidos actuales niveles de salarios, y reestructurar y diversificar las economías. Esto último ya retrasado respecto al momento actual del cambio de ciclo en el que se encuentran.


Eduardo Ascariz / Presidente, economista,
EMC / Economistas en Mercados de Capitales SA.//
Entidad Regulada y Supervisada por la Superintedencia de Valores de Panamá.

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