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Mercado euro/$

Escenario global macro

La cumbre de Antalya, Turquía, finalizada la pasada semana, la décima del G20, pasará sin reseñas en la memoria ante la ausencia de medidas para compensar los desequilibrios y la crisis financiera en la economía mundial, admitiendo un crecimiento económico regional desigual y por debajo de las expectativas menos optimistas.

De las medidas adoptadas en 2014 en la cumbre de Brisbane (Australia), aplicables en el horizonte temporal hasta 2018, han sido ya puestas en práctica el 50% de las mismas, sin haberse registrado los avances esperados globalmente en crecimiento económico y empleo.

La fuerte ralentización de la economía China, su efecto sobre los precios internacionales de las materias primas, y la debilidad de Japón y Europa, que se muestran incapaces de retomar una senda estable de crecimiento, son las causas de este sesgo en los objetivos, para 2015, año en el que el crecimiento mundial será apenas del 3%, medio punto por debajo del registrado en 2014.

Este contexto fortalece la posición del dólar como moneda refugio soportada al mismo tiempo en fundamentales.

Eurozona

El pasado viernes, el indicador de precios a la producción en Alemania, confirmaba la debilidad en la que continúa la situación actual de los precios en la zona euro.

El lunes previo, se daba a conocer el dato de pecios en la zona euro del mes de octubre, que registraban un retorno a los registros positivos con un incremento del 0,1% y con un dato subyacente que se situaba en el 1,1%, el registro más alto de los 2 últimos años. La cifra sigue siendo consecuente con una continuidad en la moderada recuperación y aunque repunta, entendemos que tras los atentados en París, el BCE mantendrá el objetivo de ampliar el plazo del programa cuantitativo y reducir como medida adicional al mismo tiempo, el tipo de facilidad de depósito desde el -0,1% actual hasta el -0,3%.

El BCE ha trasladado al mercado claras señales de relajación monetaria añadidas, tras la constatación de un debilitamiento en la economía y los niveles de inflación esperados para la Eurozona. Ayer Peter Praet, miembro del Comité Ejecutivo del BCE, en declaraciones, reforzaba esta posibilidad.

Actuaciones añadidas de relajación monetaria favorecen la apreciación del tipo de cabio del dólar, en mayor medida en tanto el sesgo macro entre ambas economía se amplíe, circunstancia esta que podría seguir apreciando el tipo de cambio del dólar más allá de nuestro objetivo a corto plazo de los 1,05.

EEUU

El dato de IPC de la pasada semana en EEUU registraba un comportamiento moderado, lo que deja al mercado de cambios en la inercia precedente, al no sumar orientación a la misma.

El pasado miércoles 18, las actas de la FED,  que calificaban el ritmo de crecimiento económico de moderado, eran al mismo tiempo consecuentes con una subida de tipos el próximo día 16 del mes de diciembre. Así lo muestran la mayoría de los miembros de la FED, favorables a que se inicie el proceso de normalización de la política monetaria abandonado en diciembre de 2008. El no hacerlo en esta ocasión, volvería a mandar al mercado un mensaje de falta de confianza.

La decisión, en todo caso, se sigue vinculando a la evolución de los datos. El día anterior, el dato publicado de producción industrial registraba un recorte de -0,2 décimas, al igual que la capacidad de utilización, que se situaba a la baja en el 77,5%. El dato de inventarios, crecía un 0,3%, junto a una cifra de ventas al por menor que se reducía en un 0,2%, lo que en su conjunto supone un síntoma de ralentización del dinamismo económico. No obstante, el efecto de la proximidad de las fechas navideñas, suponen un sesgo sobre la interpretación de este ratio, especialmente en lo que se refiere al componente inventaros, por lo que se deberá permanecer atento a esta evolución.

Las actuales fechas de la Navidad, serán determinantes para poder estimar finalmente la magnitud de apreciación del dólar, por el fuerte efecto de esta época sobre el consumo y la actividad y su incidencia sobre el PIB y el empleo en el país.

Las actas, se corresponden con el comité celebrado hace tres semanas, anterior por tanto a los atentados de pasado viernes en Paris, por lo que este efecto no ha tenido su valoración en las mismas.

Esta semana

Hoy lunes día 23, la zona Euro ofrece mayor número de cifras en la jornada, con la publicación de los datos del PMI del sector manufacturero y de servicios. Las cifras deben ser reflejo de una continuidad en la mejora moderada de la economía. Solo un sesgo relevante respecto de las estimaciones debería poner en cuestión la actuación del próximo día 6 por parte del BCE.

En EEUU, comentarios desde la Reserva Federal, que ya figuran en la lista de indicadores standard debido a su frecuencia de las últimas semanas. Esta vez nuevamente Williams, que ha estado reiterando un alza en diciembre con bastante firmeza. Bullard por su parte, en sus últimas declaraciones aventuraba del riesgo de un dólar al alza, lo que puede sugerir descontar una fortaleza del dólar limitada, circunstancia que ya anticipábamos en análisis anteriores al establecer un límite en un dólar al alza más allá de la paridad, como consecuencia de posibles actuaciones de la FED sobre estos niveles para limitar su apreciación.

Esta semana de forma añadida, se publicarán relevantes datos macro que incidirán en una previsible continuidad en la actual orientación y fortaleza del mercado a favor del dólar, destacando el PIB del tercer trimestre de EE.UU., Alemania y España y la inflación adelantada de noviembre en Europa, referente del mandato del BCE.

Además, también hay que estar atentos  al comportamiento de los consumidores en el «Black Friday» en EE.UU, como referente del futuro comportamiento de la campaña de navidad. No olvidemos que el consumo explica el 70% del PIB de EEUU.

En conclusión.

Seguimos anticipando una continuidad en la apreciación del dólar , objetivo 1,05, consecuente con el dinamismo de la economía EEUU, que resiste internamente un contexto global más débil, en un entorno de una normalización del aterrizaje suave de China, que mantiene el proceso de cambio del modelo económico orientado hacia el sector exterior y de absorción intensa de inversión y capital internacional, a un modelo de crecimiento mirando hacia el interior fundamentado en el consumo, con Japón en recesión (situación en la que lleva anclado 15 años), la Eurozona en lenta recuperación y unos emergentes que seguirán con graves dificultades este año 2015, aunque favorecidos temporalmente por unos precios de las materias primas estabilizados y un endeudamiento más moderado, pero necesitados de importantes reformas estructurales y presionados por la inflación como consecuencia de la fuerte fuga de capitales y las necesarias devaluaciones, lo que continuará ejerciendo fuerte presión sobre el empleo, consecuencia de la necesidad de aplicación de políticas fiscales restrictivas.

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