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Eduardo Ascariz / EMC Markets
Mercado euro/$

Variables que pueden anticipar la actuación sobre los tipos en EEUU

El mercado atento al BCE mañana

Contexto de moderado retorno a la normalización del escenario económico global, lo que vuelve a dejar sobre la evolución de las variables internas de EEUU la perspectiva sobre los tipos de interés en el país, esto es, si subirán antes o después de diciembre de 2015.

Nuestra posición se mantiene en que la normalización se producirá en los días 15 y 16 de la reunión de diciembre de este año, acomodando las subidas posteriores al ritmo del crecimiento de la economía y los niveles de precios, inflación, al mismo tiempo que se contempla la evolución de la economía China y el efecto sobre los emergentes. En este escenario, mantenemos el objetivo de tipo de cambio en los 1,05

En general, la Fed es consecuente con la conclusión de que la economía estadounidense se mantiene sobre la senda favorable tras confirmarse que la reciente desaceleración en el crecimiento se debió fundamentalmente a una corrección de los inventarios y que el mercado laboral sigue fortaleciéndose, en un entorno global de mayor normalización, una vez parece confirmarse el aterrizaje suave de la economía China.

Haciendo referencia al retorno de las observaciones sobre los indicadores internos, entendemos que una combinación de cifras en las siguientes magnitudes, más que permitirían concluir una subida de tipos, lo que a lo largo de estas semanas permitirá ir anticipando movimientos en uno u otro sentido del cruce euro dólar:

  1. Crecimiento de los asalariados no agrícolas crezca alrededor de 175.000 entre octubre y noviembre, incluyendo revisiones de cifras previamente publicadas.
  2. Crecimiento del promedio de horas trabajadas.
  3. Una continuidad en la aceleración del costo unitario laboral, con una mejora de lis salarios.
  4. Un aumento de la probabilidad que el mercado atribuye a una subida en diciembre.

Aparecen sin embargo en el horizonte inmediato, dos cuestiones heredadas de legislaturas anteriores y vinculadas con un aumento del riesgo político en Washington en relación con la fecha límite del próximo día 05 de noviembre, para la que antes habrá debido de elevarse nuevamente el techo de la deuda y la fecha límite del 11 de diciembre, en la que se produciría en consecuencia, un cierre del gobierno.

Este condicionante político, representa un nuevo elemento de incertidumbre que podría incidir en la decisión de la fecha de subida de tipos, aplazando la misma hasta principios 2016, especialmente cuando existe un enfrentamiento de opiniones en el seno de la Fed al respecto del actual momento del despegue económico, para el que los Gobernadores Brainard y Tarullo justifican que el primer aumento se debe retrasar hasta 2016, en contraposición a las opiniones expresadas por la presidenta de la Fed Yellen y Vicepresidente Fischer.

La evolución política favorable de los dos desafíos fiscales en Washington, esto es, elevar el techo de la deuda y ampliar la financiación del gobierno antes de la conclusión de los plazos, supondría el quinto aspecto que junto a los cuatro anteriores permitiría descontar favorablemente una subida de tipos en EEUU en 2015. Hoy, ausencia de cifras para ambas economías, con la atención del mercado sobre la rueda de prensa de mañana de Draghi tras la reunión del BCE.


Eduardo Ascariz / Presidente, economista,
EMC / Economistas en Mercados de Capitales SA.//
Entidad Regulada y Supervisada por la Superintedencia de Valores de Panamá.

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