Por Abelardo Medina, economista sénior de Icefi
Desde hace algunos meses cuando se inició la batalla política por la presidencia de Estados Unidos de América y con más énfasis a partir del viernes 20 de enero cuando Donald Trump tomó posesión en dicho cargo; gran parte de los políticos, empresarios, analistas y del pueblo centroamericano ha estado sumamente inquieta por los potenciales efectos de las decisiones que pueda tomar dicho personaje en la conducción del gigante del norte.
Y es que debemos entender que, nos guste o no, el señor Trump es el presidente de su nación y sus decisiones, al menos en teoría, buscarán mejorar las condiciones socioeconómicas de los grupos de pobladores que votaron por él, en los comicios; no es nuestro presidente, ni rige el destino de los países centroamericanos. El señor Trump es libre de decidir, dentro del marco legal de su gestión, lo que él crea que le conviene al país del norte de América, siempre y cuando respete la autodeterminación de los demás países y los derechos humanos de los habitantes del mundo.
Por ello y si bien es cierto, es razonable la inquietud sobre los efectos positivos o negativos que sus decisiones puedan tener sobre la economía y la sociedad de los países centroamericanos, es hora que recordemos que los más interesados en que nuestras naciones avancen, somos nosotros mismos, no debemos depender estrictamente de lo que otro país decida. No obstante, la inquietud es natural, porque durante muchos años, los países de la región se han focalizado en construir esquemas económicos que dependen significativamente del funcionamiento económico de Estados Unidos, por ello, su crecimiento ha sido fuente de mejora, pero también sus crisis han implicado fuertes contratiempos para la región.
Sin el afán de ser exhaustivo, las decisiones a adoptar por el gobierno estadounidense podrían tener repercusiones al menos en los campos político, económico y social de nuestra región. En el campo político, aun cuando no parece que el señor Trump haya decidido cambiar, hasta el momento, las líneas de acción que el país del norte ha utilizado para la región centroamericana en los últimos años, esto es: un aparente apoyo para la lucha contra la corrupción, por el fortalecimiento institucional y de la democracia, y especialmente para el triángulo norte de la región, el apoyo financiero para que Guatemala, El Salvador y Honduras, creen condiciones para evitar la masiva migración hacia el país del norte; la principal preocupación de muchos políticos y algunos empresarios interesados, es si el nuevo Presidente de EEUU continuará con la iniciativa de Alianza por la Prosperidad… olvidando que al final, el aporte de dicha nación aun cuando colabora con el financiamiento de los programas a implementar, es mínimo conforme las necesidades latentes en la región… por ello, los gobiernos de la región, más que esperanzados o preocupados por la donación de ese país, deben avanzar firmemente en la creación de condiciones para que sus sociedades dejen de expulsar a miles de centroamericanos que buscan ansiosamente mejores condiciones de vida en otro país.
En el mismo sentido, la amenaza, aun no claramente establecida, de deportaciones masivas o de potenciales gravámenes a los flujos de recursos financieros, preocupa a los países cuyo nivel de remesas financia gran parte del consumo nacional. Honduras, El Salvador y Guatemala, reciben remesas de migrantes hacia sus países por el orden del 18.0%, 16.5% y 10.0% del PIB, respectivamente, por lo que decisiones que afectaran dicho rubro, tendrían enormes impactos sociales en materia de consumo y empleo, así como de estabilidad económica. La preocupación de los gobernantes y políticos de la región, si bien es cierto es legítima, debe llevar al inmediato planteamiento de acciones alternativas, no solo como preparativo a una potencial vigencia de medidas en el sentido mencionado, sino a atacar realmente la pobreza, la marginación social, la falta de oportunidades y la inseguridad que viven los pobladores, que los empuja a buscar nuevos horizontes.
En materia económica, la preocupación de grupos empresariales por la potencial denuncia de algunos acuerdos comerciales, también es legítima, aun cuando los primeros visos de la administración Trump, ha dejado con alguna felicidad a la industria textilera de maquila que ven cómo se aleja, al menos en el corto plazo, la amenaza de la competencia vietnamita. La economía regional actual, que funciona bajo un aparente esquema de aprovechamiento de las capacidades exportadoras de los países y de las aparentes ventajas de acceso a la economía de EEUU, ha olvidado el fortalecimiento de los mercados internos, la formación masiva de consumidores en los mercados locales, la inversión efectiva en las micro, medianas y pequeñas empresas que son las reales responsables de la creación del empleo interno, y la diversificación productiva, entre otros aspectos, como estrategias de crecimiento y desarrollo productivo. Por ello, aun cuando en el corto plazo aparentemente las aguas estén tranquilas, es mejor que los grupos empresariales y los políticos encargados de la conducción económica, pongan sus barbas en remojo y empiecen a estudiar nuevas alternativas de crecimiento y desarrollo regional, lejos de un esquema de dependencia económica total del país del norte.
Por supuesto que la región debe estar inquieta por las decisiones de Trump, pero debe estar más inquieta por la falta de reacción de los tomadores de decisión ante las potenciales acciones de EEUU. Lo mejor es pasar del susto a la acción y aun cuando el panorama pudiera lucir complicado, es hora de tomar decisiones que conduzcan a un mejor futuro para las naciones de Centroamérica.
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