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La competitividad depende de la política fiscal

Recientemente el Foro Económico Mundial, organización internacional que reúne a políticos, académicos y empresarios para auspiciar el debate sobre las políticas mundiales para  el desarrollo, presentó el Informe Global de Competitividad 2015-2016. El Foro define la competitividad como el conjunto de instituciones, políticas y factores que determinan el nivel de productividad de un país, y sostiene que las inversiones estratégicas para mejorar la competitividad deben buscar el fortalecimiento de las instituciones, la estabilidad macroeconómica, y la dotación de bienes públicos, algo que se considera un requerimiento básico para la competitividad.

En función de esta conceptualización, la evaluación de competitividad se elabora tomando en cuenta 12 pilares que giran en torno a tres categorías. La primera, aglutina requerimientos básicos; la segunda,  agrupa indicadores que promueven eficiencia y, la tercera, reúne factores de innovación y sofisticación. Como resultado de esta evaluación, el Informe construye un ranking global de competitividad, en el que se comparan las naciones, y una calificación por país, que revela avances y retrocesos en los tres pilares y sus componentes.

Al analizar las calificaciones obtenidas por los países centroamericanos en los informes de 2009-2010 y 2015-2016, se puede observar que, en los últimos cinco años,  El Salvador y Honduras han perdido terreno frente al resto de países evaluados, cayendo 16 y 6 puestos en el ranking, respectivamente. Por el contrario, el resto de países han escalado entre 6 y 12 puestos.

Indice

En Costa Rica (puesto 52, de 140 países estudiados) el índice de competitividad reconoce la calidad del sistema educativo y la alta cobertura del mismo en el nivel secundario. El país cuenta con la mejor evaluación de la región en el pilar de institucionalidad, gracias a  la independencia judicial, un marco legal eficiente y buenos indicadores de transparencia gubernamental. También se observan mejoras en infraestructura, especialmente en la calidad del servicio eléctrico y en la disposición de telefonía móvil. El país sigue siendo el mejor evaluado de la región en los pilares de salud y educación básica, educación superior y capacitación, preparación tecnológica así como en innovación y sofisticación empresarial. Sin embargo, continúan siendo mal evaluados los pilares de ambiente macroeconómico y desarrollo del mercado financiero. El primero, debido al continuo déficit fiscal, sin soluciones de mediano plazo; mientras el segundo es resultado de un complejo acceso a préstamos.

El Salvador (puesto 95) es el país que más ha caído en la evaluación de competitividad, en la que se observa el debilitamiento del ambiente macroeconómico, atribuido en mayor medida al bajo ahorro nacional bruto y al nivel de deuda pública. Asimismo, en el pilar institucional, la evaluación sanciona significativamente los costos que generan el crimen y la violencia, así como la poca transparencia gubernamental y el comportamiento ético de las empresas. En cuanto a la eficiencia del mercado laboral, la evaluación castiga la baja capacidad para atraer y retener talento, lo que se suma al bajo punteo que el país ha recibido en los diferentes elementos relacionados con la calidad de la educación. La mejora en la calidad de la infraestructura aeroportuaria y de caminos, así como la amplia cobertura de telefonía móvil, son elementos que resaltan positivamente en la evaluación.

En el caso de Guatemala (puesto 78) la evaluación resalta que el país tiene pocas barreras para invertir y comerciar, a lo que se añade la capacidad de retener talento y un amplio desarrollo de servicios financieros. Guatemala es evaluada como el mejor ambiente macroeconómico de la región, incluso por encima de Panamá, en especial por la baja deuda pública con respecto al PIB. La evaluación destaca negativamente el pilar institucional, debido a los costos relacionados con la violencia y el crimen y la poca legitimidad de los políticos. El país tiene la peor calificación regional en el pilar de salud y educación básica. A esto se añaden las notas poco halagüeñas por la cobertura de la educación secundaria y terciaria, la baja calidad del sistema educativo y la alta mortalidad infantil. Otros factores que disminuyen el punteo de competitividad son la casi inexistente política antimonopolio, el reducido acceso a internet y la poca equidad de género en el mercado laboral.

Por su parte, Honduras (puesto 88) ha retrocedido en su evaluación general, debido al deterioro del ambiente macroeconómico, como resultado de los niveles de inflación y el significativo déficit fiscal de los últimos años. Se observan otras disminuciones en la calificación de componentes relacionados con infraestructura y acceso al internet, así como en la cobertura y calidad del sistema educativo. La evaluación califica positivamente el desarrollo del mercado financiero en función del acceso y disposición de servicios bancarios. En el pilar sobre instituciones, también se reporta una mejoría en la transparencia y la protección de los derechos de propiedad que ha sido capaz de reducir el peso negativo que continúan teniendo los costos derivados de la violencia y el crimen.

Nicaragua (puesto 108), aunque mejoró en el índice mundial, continúa siendo la economía menos competitiva de la región, con los peores índices en 9 de los 12 pilares evaluados. Los pilares de innovación, sofisticación empresarial, eficiencia del mercado de bienes e instituciones, están entre los 15 menos competitivos del mundo. Resaltan acá evaluaciones negativas sobre la independencia judicial, el favoritismo en decisiones del gobierno, la poca transparencia gubernamental y el comportamiento ético de las empresas. Otros elementos negativos se relacionan con la calidad del sistema educativo, así como el bajo acceso a internet, los reducidos servicios financieros, las pocas ventajas competitivas y lo monopólico del mercado de bienes. Por otro lado, la evaluación reporta mejoras en los pilares de infraestructura, ambiente macroeconómico (sano balance fiscal) y salud y educación básica, y reducidos costos relacionados con violencia y crimen.

Finalmente, Panamá (puesto 50) tiene la mejor posición de la región en el ranking global. El desarrollo del mercado financiero, está entre los 15 mejor evaluados en el mundo, mientras la infraestructura y la eficiencia del mercado de bienes, está entre los 40 mejores, a los que se agrega una buena calificación sobre la facilidad de hacer negocios, el acceso a crédito y la solidez bancaria. Sin embargo, en los últimos años, se observa un deterioro de los pilares institucional, ambiente macroeconómico y salud y educación básica. El país tiene malas calificaciones en la evaluación de la independencia judicial, favoritismo en decisiones del gobierno, así como en el comportamiento ético de las empresas. Por otro lado, la cobertura y la calidad del sistema educativo, así como la calidad de la enseñanza de ciencias y matemáticas, continúan castigando la competitividad.

Como se puede apreciar, los factores que más frenan la mejora de la competitividad en Centroamérica están relacionados con dificultades para potenciar la modernización tecnológica y la transformación productiva, construir una mayor equidad y cimentar un Estado más efectivo y transparente. En ese sentido, mejorar la seguridad, la educación y la salud, así como generar condiciones para mayor empleo, producción y certidumbre económica,  requerirá de cambios en la política fiscal, para alinearla a objetivos de competitividad y el desarrollo,  es decir, alejarla de la simplista y corrupta visión de más privilegios fiscales. Las piezas fundamentales de esta nueva política fiscal son la transparencia y la mitigación de la corrupción, la mejora de las administraciones tributarias, la vinculación del gasto público con la planificación y la evaluación de impacto en el bienestar y desarrollo, y una mayor participación social en la discusión sobre el rol del Estado.

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