Por Marcela Escobar
En El Salvador se consumen cerca de 80 millones de libras de carne bovina al año, de los cuales, aproximadamente la mitad son importadas, principalmente de Nicaragua (el 79% en 2017). Sin embargo, entre 2007 y 2015, el número de hogares que consumió este tipo de carne se redujo en un 36.1%. Hacia 2014, se observó una tendencia creciente de los precios de carne bovina monitoreados por la Defensoría del Consumidor, en un contexto donde los precios internacionales crecieron 5.3% y los centroamericanos 11.2%; la tasa de crecimiento de los precios internos fue de 17.8% entre 2013 y 2017.
En un primer momento, esta alza en los precios locales estuvo influida por un comportamiento análogo de los precios internacionales, que alcanzó su pico histórico hacia finales de 2014, pero luego estos últimos descendieron llegando incluso a niveles más bajos que previo a la escalada de precios para después estabilizarse. Sin embargo, en el caso de El Salvador, los precios promedio de los cortes más vendidos de carne[1] continuaron subiendo nueve meses más a lo largo de 2015 y se estancaron en niveles superiores.
¿Por qué los precios de la carne, que dependen en gran manera del mercado regional, no descendieron en el mercado salvadoreño? ¿Qué factores posibilitaron que los precios se hayan quedado “pegados” en un nivel superior al resto de países de la región? Se debe buscar la explicación en los eslabones que conforman la cadena productiva, desde las etapas de producción y aprovisionamiento, hasta la distribución y comercialización.
En primer lugar, la producción nacional de carne bovina se redujo en un 48.7% entre 2008 y 2017. Esta situación se agrava cuando se cuenta sólo con un 10% de rastros que cumplen con los mínimos estándares sanitarios y ambientales. A nivel regional, El Salvador ocupa la última posición en términos de producción y Nicaragua el primero, lo cual explicaría, en parte, la dependencia de importaciones.
La literatura económica sostiene un argumento, medianamente válido en tiempos de veneración del libre comercio, que es la protección de las industrias nacionales (nacientes) el cual se aplica sólo de manera gradual y temporal en los acuerdos comerciales entre países y regiones, ya que se supone que todo productor potencial sometido a la competencia extranjera debería estar preparado para sobrellevar pérdidas mientras penetra gradualmente los mercados nacionales e internacionales. Por tanto, una prolongada intervención del Estado a través de un arancel sólo provocaría una distorsión a mediano y largo plazo protegiendo una industria ineficiente, provocando mayores costos a los consumidores.
Bajo esa lógica podría ser cuestionable proteger una industria como la de carne bovina, que opera bajo condiciones internas que limitan su capacidad de lograr mayor eficiencia y competitividad. Por ejemplo, una producción de pastura eficiente estaría ligada a la utilización de razas especiales para producción de carne tipo cebú (no de leche, como el caso salvadoreño), cuyos novillos a los 18 meses llegan a pesar entre 700 a 800 libras con un rendimiento que ronda alrededor del 60-70% de obtención de carne (unas 420-560 libras) por cabeza de ganando. En el caso salvadoreño, según la Dirección General de Ganadería del Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería (MAG), el ganado, en su mayoría vacas de descarte, es vendido con pesos inferiores a 400 libras y su rendimiento oscila entre 45-50% por cabeza[2].
Aunado a lo anterior, los costos crecientes que enfrentan los ganaderos debido al costo de alimentación en un país cada vez más golpeado por el cambio climático, evidenciado en el corredor seco, y un sistema antiguo de mataderos municipales sumido en una compleja situación sanitaria, hacen de la industria cárnica en el país una industria muy poco competitiva. Revertir dicha situación implica políticas, programas e inversiones que pueden estar más allá de las competencias de las autoridades en la rama de ganadería.
En ese sentido, considero que hay importantes argumentos para reconocer que El Salvador tendrá dificultades para alcanzar en el corto plazo condiciones para constituirse en un productor competitivo de carne bovina. Por lo tanto, es razonable -desde el punto de vista de eficiencia económica- valorar la liberalización del mercado mediante una reducción de aranceles.
Si bien la tarifa centroamericana no contempla el pago de arancel alguno entre los países de la región, generando así mayores incentivos para importar de Nicaragua, El Salvador decidió en algún punto de la negociación en el Consejo de Ministros de Integración Económica (COMIECO) adoptar (al igual que Nicaragua) un arancel del 30% para importar carne bovina de terceros países, a pesar de no contar con una producción nacional suficiente para suplir la demanda. Mientras tanto, Guatemala, Honduras y Costa Rica tienen un arancel del 15%, un nivel menor de aranceles a pesar de que estos países tienen industria nacional que produce carne bovina para la exportación.
De esta manera, el país acordó un arancel que limita las posibilidades de diversificar la importación de otros países y nos vuelve dependientes de la producción de carne bovina de Nicaragua, cuyos principales mercados de exportación son Estados Unidos (41.1%) y El Salvador (18.7%).
Ahora bien, esta situación puede cambiar. De hecho, en 2010, Nicaragua provocó una escalada de precios a nivel regional, ya que redirigió cerca de una cuarta parte de su producción a Venezuela, que pagaba precios casi un 20% superior al de sus tradicionales socios comerciales regionales. Esto podría volver a suceder en el mediano plazo dado que Nicaragua logró certificar su producción en mayo de 2018 para exportar carne a cualquier mercado del mundo, hacia mercados más exigentes (y más competitivos en términos de precios) como el europeo o el asiático. Esta certificación de la Organización Mundial de Sanidad Animal, dada en París, le confiere el estatus de menor riesgo que existe.
Por otra parte, los precios no bajaron para El Salvador, a pesar de que éstos se suscriben a la dinámica del comercio internacional y se esperaría que, ante ciertos shocks derivados de coyunturas específicas, fuesen susceptibles de volver a descender (o aumentar) según lo determine la oferta y la demanda.
Observemos el panorama de la importación de carne. Según datos de la Dirección General de Aduanas, para 2016 existían cerca de 67 importadores de carne bovina, de los cuales cerca de un tercio importa de manera constante. Sin embargo, al examinar los volúmenes importados, sólo dos empresas concentraban casi el 70% de la importación, en su mayoría de origen nicaragüense. El resto de carne es importada por agentes económicos pertenecientes al mercado mayorista que suele surtir a consumidores intermedios (hoteles, restaurantes).
Según el Estudio de la Superintendencia de Competencia (2018), al examinar las tendencias de precios, particularmente los ligados al canal de distribución minorista (cadenas de supermercados), son más rígidos a la baja en los diferentes cortes. Es decir que no se ajustan a la baja cuando los precios en el mercado regional caen, no así en la distribución mayorista, cuya dinámica competitiva permite que los precios se ajusten a los vaivenes del mercado regional e internacional.
Tal parece que se han generado ciertas condiciones para hacer del mercado de carne bovina un mercado muy poco competitivo: industria nacional en declive, restricción de las fuentes de aprovisionamiento de terceros países y concentración de la distribución (minorista) en dos empresas cuyos incentivos para bajar los precios son casi nulos.
En este contexto, los esfuerzos interinstitucionales a partir de las recomendaciones del estudio de la Superintendencia de Competencia (2018), que involucra toda la diversidad de la cadena productiva (producción, matanza, procesamiento, importación y distribución) esperan contribuir a que, en definitiva, los consumidores no continuemos pagando precios superiores a los del resto de la región centroamericana por la carne bovina, que constituye una fuente clave de proteína animal para la nutrición de los hogares salvadoreños.
Conozca más sobre el estudio de la SC
pulsando en el siguiente enlace: https://bit.ly/2OvCbPC
[1] Angelina, molida especial y corriente, posta negra, posta pacha, posta de yugo, choquezuela, guisar, aleta, hueso, costilla alta y salón.
[2] El peso promedio por animal sacrificado entre 2007 y 2015 fue de 367.6 libras, según los Anuarios de Estadísticas Agropecuarias del MAG (2008 al 2015).
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