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El coronavirus en positivo

El covid-19 llega en muy mal momento para América Latina. Mal momento económico, político y hasta estacional. En términos económicos, la región ha tenido un mal comportamiento en lo que va de siglo.

El crecimiento anual medio fue de un 1,6%, lejos del Asia emergente y claramente por debajo de otras regiones como el África Sub Sahariana (3,5%). Crecimiento que el año pasado 2019 fue incluso peor, 0,8% excluyendo a Venezuela, un país y un régimen fracasado.

El momento político es complicado y puede caracterizarse por la debilidad de los gobiernos, la explosión de las demandas de inclusión y participación social de una clase media que se siente defraudada en sus expectativas y la insuficiencia de unos servicios públicos en unos Estados incapaces de desarrollar una base tributaria estable. Y para terminar, la pandemia llega a la región cuando se adentra en el otoño y bajan las temperaturas.

Quizás los únicos factores para el optimismo sean la juventud de la población, la confianza en poder aplicar a tiempo las técnicas y prácticas de contención ya ensayadas en otras latitudes y la esperanza en que pronto se descubra una vacuna o al menos un tratamiento paliativo. Y para algunos, por una vez y sin que sirva de precedente, la especialización en la exportación de materias primas de primera necesidad, cuya demanda internacional no sufrirá tanto.

Obviamente lo contrario es cierto para los exportadores de metales y petróleo. El daño económico será intenso, aunque esperemos que breve. Aun es pronto para calcular los efectos de una crisis sin precedentes, nunca antes, ni en las dos guerras mundiales, se habían cerrado fronteras y confinado a la población.

Pero ya sabemos que la economía mundial caerá sin duda en recesión en los trimestres centrales de este año 2020. Recesión que puede alargarse a todo el año. Los mercados financieros parecen envueltos en una histérica espiral recesiva para la que poco parecen servir las extraordinarias medidas económicas adoptadas por todos los gobiernos. Porque la respuesta política ha sido brutal, aunque descoordinada.

Los bancos centrales han garantizado la disponibilidad ilimitada de liquidez a precio cero. La política fiscal ha reaccionado tratando de asegurar el empleo, la renta y el mantenimiento del tejido empresarial a un fortísimo coste.  Se han hecho promesas de gasto público que suponen entre un 10% y un 15% del PIB, que obviamente aumentarán los ya elevadísimos ratios de deuda PIB y pueden provocar dudas sobre su sostenibilidad en algunos países.

Una expansión fiscal de esa magnitud es un lujo que los países latinoamericanos no se pueden permitir. Ya hay fuertes salidas de capital e importantes tensiones depreciatorias en las principales divisas de la región. La respuesta monetaria tradicional de subir las tasas de interés solo agravaría la crisis. Las respuestas de política económica han de ser inteligentes y creíbles. Para garantizar la liquidez y la estabilidad puede ser necesario contar con la ayuda del FMI, que se ha apresurado a enfatizar que está dispuesto a todo y ha movilizado mas de un billón de dólares. Pero igual que los países europeos necesitan una acción coordinada y solidaria del BCE para disipar temores de una repetición de la crisis del euro, las economías emergentes y en desarrollo se beneficiarían mucho de una acción coordinada que evite la estigmatización derivada de una apelación individual a la ayuda del Fondo Monetario.

Los objetivos de política económica son los mismos en todas partes. Mantener el tejido empresarial, incluido el de micro empresas, autónomos e informales, porque la recuperación será más rápida si no se destruye su capital humano y organizativo ni su fondo de comercio. Ayudar a los grupos sociales más vulnerables y afectados a mantener un mínimo de renta, no solo por justicia social sino también para disminuir en la medida de lo posible la caída del consumo, y por tanto el shock de demanda.

Y proteger el empleo, con suspensiones temporales y reducciones de jornada. Pero esta crisis debe ayudar también a la región a sacar lecciones de más largo plazo. Es necesario construir economías más flexibles y competitivas, con capacidad de adaptación a los shocks exógenos, para lo que una mayor diversificación productiva ayudaría mucho, junto con una apuesta decidida por la educación que permita reducir el rezago en la digitalización.

Es necesario crear una mínima red de protección social, lo que exige ampliar las bases tributarias y conseguir la estabilidad de la cuentas públicas. Pero sobre todo hay que asegurar la inclusión y la movilidad social para dotar de legitimidad a las instituciones democráticas. Porque en tiempos revueltos pueden resurgir los populismos a los que la región ha sido tan históricamente propensa.


Fernando Fernández Méndez de Andés
IE Business School

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