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El Reino Unido rompe a Europa

Un referéndum es un plebiscito y Cameron ha perdido el suyo. Y con él ha perdido la estabilidad y la prosperidad mundial. Los británicos han acabado con una de las pocas certidumbres políticas que habían permanecido inmutables desde hace más de cincuenta años: la integración europea. Hoy es un proceso reversible, cambiable a voluntad. Y ha sucumbido al nacionalismo, una enfermedad europea del siglo XX que creíamos haber superado. Hoy, ha reaparecido el riesgo político en Europa y el riesgo de recesión global.

Más allá de la volatilidad histérica de los mercados financieros, lo cierto es que la decisión británica de abandonar la Unión Europea abre un horizonte político, económico y social desconocido. Legalmente, el Tratado de la Unión contempla un plazo de dos años para fijar una nueva relación político-económica ente Gran Bretaña y Europa. Pero que nadie se engañe, los efectos de esta decisión se notarán de inmediato. Ya los estamos notando: la libra esterlina cotiza al nivel más bajo de hace treinta años, la bolsa madrileña, temerosa también del resultado de las elecciones de este domingo, cae más de un 10%, la mayor pérdida de Europa. Cae también Nueva York. Hasta las divisas latinoamericanas recogen el impacto y se deprecian significativamente.  Los inversores han entrado en pánico, buscan valores refugio, puertos seguros en tiempos de mudanza.

La negociación será compleja porque las partes no se pueden permitir el lujo de invitar al efecto demostración, pero tampoco sucumbir al ánimo justiciero de castigar a los traidores. Un enfrentamiento continuado no beneficia a nadie. Pero esa negociación es quizás la parte más sencilla de las tareas que nos esperan a los europeos. La Unión Europea está abierta en canal y tendrá que refundarse. Porque ha venido actuando bajo una premisa que se ha demostrado falsa: por muchos que fuesen sus problemas, su déficit democrático o los errores en el diseño institucional del euro, cualquier alternativa era peor. Los políticos europeos han abusado de la excusa europea, endosándole siempre a Bruselas, ese ente abstracto, distante y burocrático, las decisiones impopulares pero necesarias: ajuste fiscal, contención salarial, reforma laboral y del sistema de pensiones. Reformas todas ellas necesarias porque la economía se ha globalizado, Europa ha perdido su ventaja competitiva y tecnológica, su demografía está estancada y el Estado de Bienestar ha crecido más allá de lo financiable. Pero en vez de hacer pedagogía política, de liderar a sus opiniones públicas, se han excusado en Europa, culpándola de decisiones inevitables, como los malos dirigentes latinoamericanos siempre culpaban al FMI.

Europa tiene un déficit democrático y de funcionalidad. La Unión Monetaria exige unas cesiones de soberanía monetaria, bancaria, financiera y fiscal que son incompatibles con la falta de legitimidad democrática de sus instituciones. La Unión necesita un nuevo Tratado Constituyente, que aclare y simplifique los procesos de decisión, cree instituciones auténticamente federales, incorpore reglas fiscales sencillas, de obligado cumplimiento y aplicación automática, a cambio de protección mutua. Requiere un gobierno y un Ministerio de Hacienda. Los regímenes de excepción, de intervención encubierta de los países en dificultades, se tienen que acabar. Pero también las posibilidades de free rider, de comportamientos nacionales  irresponsables amparados en la solidaridad europea. Hace falta renovar el pacto social que dio origen al proyecto europeo. Es un paso atrevido, cuajado de decisiones difíciles, pero la alternativa ya no es seguir como si no pasase nada, sino la desintegración y el desmoronamiento. Si los líderes europeos no están a la altura de las circunstancias, el continente, y todo el mundo, puede precipitarse a nueva y profunda recesión económica y social.


Fernando Fernández Méndez de Andés 
IE Business School 

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