Parte 1: Pasado y Presente
Hacer un ejercicio de comparación analítica de los resultados en materia económica de los últimos cuatro gobiernos será un buen ejercicio que nos llevaría a conclusiones más razonadas que los meros planteamientos ideológicos-propagandísticos (para juzgar las gestiones de gobiernos anteriores) que hemos venido escuchando en los medios y redes sociales en los últimos años. Pero sobre todo, este ejercicio podría ser útil para identificar algunas alternativas hacia un despegue necesariamente importante que el país debe dar. Este artículo es una especie de ejercicio de Big Data a través de la cual se ha analizado una gran cantidad de indicadores y resultados desde el año 2000 al 2018, a través de comparaciones determinando logros o retrocesos importantes del país en materia económica.
El equilibrio demográfico. En primer lugar, es importante señalar que El Salvador ha pasado de 5.8 millones a 6.6 millones de habitantes desde el año 2000 al 2018, lo que significa un crecimiento aproximado del 13 % en 18 años, que, comparado con el de los países de la región, El Salvador es el país con menor crecimiento demográfico en Centroamérica. Este lento crecimiento indica que no hay indicios de una tensión demográfica que ejerza presión sobre el crecimiento de la economía de nuestro país (al menos en teoría).
Producto Interno Bruto (PIB). El Salvador ha crecido en promedio un 2 % anual desde el año 2000 y ha sido durante la gestión presidencial de Mauricio Funes que la economía ha tenido un mejor crecimiento (2.6 % en promedio), seguido por el gobierno de Salvador Sánchez Cerén (2.4 %) y con menor dinamismo con el gobierno de Tony Saca (1.8 % de crecimiento económico) y de Francisco Flores (del 1.2 %). Al revisar las tendencias de crecimiento de la región centroamericana, la tasa de crecimiento de nuestro país es la más baja de Centroamérica (esto a pesar de ser uno de los países con mayores ingresos económicos -tercer mejor posición en Centroamérica por encima de Nicaragua y Honduras-, lo cual refleja un poco la estructura compleja de nuestra economía).
Aporte de sectores al PIB. Haciendo un análisis sobre la tendencia histórica del aporte de la agricultura al PIB, se puede evidenciar que este aporte ha caído en un 32 % desde el año 2000, pasando de 7.2 % al 4.8 % en 2018. Fue en los gobiernos de Flores (caída del 20 %), Funes (16 %) y Cerén (12 %) donde se deterioró más el aporte que ha tenido la agricultura a la economía salvadoreña. Como elemento de comparación a nivel regional, El Salvador es el país centroamericano con menor aporte del sector agrícola al PIB en cerrada distancia con Costa Rica.
Con relación al aporte del sector de la industria al PIB (incluye a las industrias manufactureras, explotación de minas y canteras, construcción, y suministro de electricidad, gas y agua), dicho aporte ha pasado del 26.3 % en 2000 al 24.7 % en 2018, lo que equivale a una caída del 6 % aproximadamente. Únicamente se registra un incremento positivo durante la gestión de Funes (creció el 3.8 %) y de Saca (1.9 %).
Estos dos datos, la caída del aporte del sector agrícola, y la leve caída del sector industrial, encienden las alarmas para profundizar sobre la dinámica de nuestra economía y preguntarnos sobre cuál es la base para producir crecimientos más acelerados.
Exportaciones. Las exportaciones globales -como porcentaje del PIB- reflejan un crecimiento lento desde el año 2000 (un 8 %) en términos generales. Durante la gestión de Flores las exportaciones cayeron un 3 %, Saca un 5 % y Cerén un 2 %, solamente en la gestión de Funes las exportaciones mostraron un crecimiento importante (10 %). Medido en montos (US$), el periodo de mayor crecimiento de las exportaciones fue durante la gestión de Funes (creció 18 %) y el menor crecimiento se dio en la gestión de Cerén (7 %).
Importaciones. Las importaciones han crecido a un ritmo mayor que las exportaciones y esto no necesariamente puede ser un buen signo para la economía ya que impacta de forma negativa en la balanza comercial donde se espera que las exportaciones sean mayores que las importaciones. Históricamente desde el año 2000, las importaciones crecieron en un 16 % como porcentaje del PIB, creciendo en promedio un 4 % para todos los gobiernos analizados a excepción del gobierno de Saca donde cayeron un 5 %. Medido dicho crecimiento en montos, en los gobiernos de Flores y Funes es donde más crecieron las importaciones (26 % promedio).
Saldo Comercial. La balanza comercial o el saldo entre exportaciones e importaciones de El Salvador posee uno de los mayores déficits a nivel de la región y desde 2009, El Salvador ocupa el puesto más alto en dicho déficit. Este déficit ha crecido un 195 % desde el año 2000 y ha sido en los gobiernos de Flores (51 %), Funes (33 %) y Cerén (24 %) donde más ha crecido (a excepción del gobierno de Saca con un crecimiento del 2.6 %).
Deuda Externa. Analizando el saldo bruto de la deuda externa (y sin conocer los datos para el gobierno de Flores), este saldo de deuda externa ha crecido en un 94 % desde el 2003, es decir que se ha duplicado en 15 años ya que pasó de 8 mil a 16 mil millones. Dicho saldo creció en un 30 % en la gestión Funes y un 19 % en la de Saca.
Según el dato sobre la deuda externa adquirido únicamente por el Gobierno General, el gobierno de Saca ha sido el más endeudado (37 %), seguido por el gobierno de Funes (32 %). La deuda externa en concepto de préstamos del Gobierno Central creció igualmente más en el gobierno de Saca (19 %) a comparación del de Funes (6 %).
Remesas Familiares. El crecimiento desde 2000 ha sido en un 208 %, siendo en el gobierno de Flores donde más crecieron dichas remesas (46 %), seguido por el gobierno de Cerén (27 %), Funes (20 %) y por último el de Saca (12 %).
Parte 2: Perspectivas de la Economía y Aprendizajes del nuevo Gobierno
Haciendo cálculos sobre los saldos positivos y negativos de los cuatro últimos gobiernos, el gobierno de Funes ha sido el que más logros ha tenido, seguido por el gobierno de Saca, aunque en la medición negativa, también el gobierno de Funes (junto al de Flores) han tenido crecimientos negativos que no aportan valor a la economía, como por ejemplo, el crecimiento de la deuda externa.
El gobierno de Cerén se ha caracterizado por resultados poco importantes para la economía en casi todas las áreas mencionadas, atreviéndome a decir que ha sido el gobierno -económicamente hablando- más “insípido” de los últimos 20 años.
Pero, ¿qué debe aprender este nuevo gobierno de estas cuatro gestiones? Estas son las señales importantes:
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