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Mauricio Garita
Capital

¿Hacia donde va Telefónica?

Recientemente Goldman Sachs emitió un comunicado en donde recomendaba comprar acciones de Telefónica. Esto a pesar de que Bloomberg argumentaba que Telefónica caería en el corto plazo. La pregunta de interés para hacerse es: ¿qué sucederá?

Para responder esta pregunta utilizaremos el método del charting analizando las gráficas y ciertos componentes interesantes que pueden darnos una luz de que sucede. Para este análisis usaremos las medias móviles, el índice MACD y soportes.

Medias móviles

El utilizar medias móviles nos permite quitar valores de las acciones que distorsionan la curva. Esta curva se pueden observar en el gráfico inferior como color rojo. En ese sentido las medias móviles nos identifican la tendencia a una caída clara del valor de la acción. En este caso la acción cada vez ha perdido fuerza y por ende es posible que baje su soporte de €12.5. Más adelante explicaré este soporte.

El índice MACD

El índice MACD responde a las siglas de Moving Average Convergence Divergence. y se utiliza para hacer una comparación entre medias móviles. Tres elementos nos indica la literatura que se deben observar del MACD. El primer es la convergencia, es decir que las medias móviles se crucen. El segundo elemento es la divergencia que resulta ser el antagonismo de la convergencia, lo contrario. El tercero es el movimiento, que se puede caracterizar por alzas dramáticas o caídas dramáticas.

Teniendo en cuenta este efecto, el MACD se puede observar en la gráfica inferior a las cotizaciones. El MACD se analiza si esta por encima o por debajo de cero. En este caso el MACD se encuentra por debajo de cero lo cual nos indica que el corto plazo está por debajo del largo plazo y por ende se puede asumir una caída. Así mismo ambas medias móviles presentan una convergencia lo cual indica que es momento de salir del mercado y la acción.

El MACD en conclusión nos indica lo mismo que las medias móviles, lo cual es que en  el corto plazo Telefónica caerá.

Soporte

Los soportes son elementos del charting que identifica donde el precio no ha disminuido. El soporte se nos presenta como un indicador de fiabilidad que el precio no disminuirá. Esto ocurre si el volumen es correspondiente al movimiento de los precios.

En este caso el volumen está cayendo conforme el precio cae lo cual indica que la tendencia seguirá.

Conclusión

En el corto plazo las acciones de Telefónica romperán su soporte de €12.5 y representarán una caída. Posiblemente habrá un periodo pequeño de recuperación causado por un pull-back pero es por la inercia del mercado, al parecer el pull-back se ha presentado el día de hoy en las cotizaciones.

Si la posición de los inversionistas de Telefónica es a largo plazo, lo prudente es mantener las acciones ya que Telefónica está invirtiendo fuertemente en América Latina y seguro tendrá importantes efectos en los precios a principios del 2016. Si la posición del inversionista es a corto plazo lo idóneo es vender.

Gráfico

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