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La reciente caida en el precio de los metales preciosos es pasajero

Aunque pareciera que el oro ha caído bastante en 2014, la realidad es que el oro sólo ha bajado 2.8% este año (empezó el año en $1225/onza y en este momento está en $1191/onza).

Hay tres razones principales por la cual los metales preciosos han estado bajando en precio recientemente:

  1. Hay una percepción que la economía de EEUU se está recuperando,
  2. Según el banco central de EEUU no hay un problema de inflación en el país (ellos dicen que inflación es menos de 2% anualmente) así que la gente no percibe un riesgo por este lado y
  3. Los mercados creen que el banco central de EEUU terminará con su proceso de “tapering” (es decir, dejarán de imprimir dinero “de la nada” para comprar bonos hipotecarios y soberanos) y pronto subirá las tasas de interés en el país.

Ahora bien, quisiera darle mi perspectiva ante cada uno de los puntos arriba mencionados:

  • Hay una percepción que la economía de EEUU se está recuperando: Se dice que “una imagen vale mas que mil palabras”. Así que la mejor forma de demostrar que no hay una recuperación en la economía estadounidense es simplemente mostrándoles los mas recientes titulares acerca de este tema. Desde la producción de fábricas hasta el mercado inmobiliario, pueden ver la economía estadounidense no está bien:

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  • Según el banco central de EEUU no hay un problema de inflación en el país: Lamentablemente, tenemos un conflicto de interés con respecto a esto. El gobierno sabe muy bien que no puede reportar la cifra «real» porque esto causaría un problema muy grande para su deficit fiscal (ejemplo: tendrían que hacer un aumentar en las cuotas de todos los jubilados que reciben «Social Security», etc.) y para el dólar estadounidense. Como hemos mencionado, cuando la tasa de interés de una moneda es negativa (esto significa que la tasa que le pagan en el banco es menor a la tasa de inflación del país), las personas no quieren la moneda en cuestión y la cambian por otras monedas (incuyendo oro y plata) y/o activos «reales y tangibles» que no pueden ser devaluados con una imprenta. Si The Federal Reserve calculara la tasa de inflación del país como lo hacián durante la decada de los 80s, esta cifra estaría entre 8%-9% por año (fuente: www.shadowstats.com), indicando una tasa «real» de negativo de por lo menos 6%.

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  • Los mercados creen que el banco central de EEUU terminará con su proceso de “tapering”, que subirá las tasas de interés en el país, en que venderá todos los bonos que compraron en los últimos 6 años: Yo diría que aquí es la parte donde la gran mayoría de los inversionistas se está equivocando. Primero, aunque The Fed termina con el “tapering” ahora en octubre, seguirán comprando bonos para artificialmente mantener las tasas bajas. Digo esto porque el banco central confirmó que va a re-invertir todos los dineros que recibe en concepto de interesés de los bonos que ya compró (The Fed tiene $4.5 millones de millones en bonos en su estado financiero) mas los dineros que se reciben cuando venza un bono. Cuando uno saca el calculo de los intereses y principal que The Fed re-invertirá mensualmente se da cuenta que el “tapering” es una ilusión, ya que seguirá comprando entre $25-35 mil millones por mes en bonos. Cuento largo-corto, la economía de EEUU sigue súper frágil y el banco central ni siquiera ha quitado el estímulo de la misma. Si en realidad hacen lo que dicen, la economía caerá en una recesión fuerte y The Fed estará forzado a estimularla de nuevo.
Los «fundamentals» para la compra de oro/plata son excelentes (tasa de interés negativo con un banco central imprimiendo miles de millones de unidades de la moneda en cuestión) y la percepción del mercado o «sentiment» hacía los metales preciosos está en el piso. Esto siginifica que hay una oportunidad de acumular oro a precios que, en unos años mirando para atrás, serán considerados como súper bajos. Esto es lo que pasó en 2008, y esto lo que pasará de nuevo.
Si usted ya tiene una inversión en oro/plata, tiene dos opciones: 1.) aprovechar que los precios han bajado y comprar mas onzas con el fin de bajar el costo promedio de su inversión o 2.) acordarse que la inversión en metales preciosos es para el “largo plazo”, dejar sus metales como están (es decir, no comprar mas), no preocuparse y esperar hasta que la gente se de cuenta que se ha equivocado y el precio de su inversión se recupere y subirá sustancialmente.
Si usted todavía no ha comprado metales preciosos, mi recomendación es de aprovechar este momento para empezar de acumular metales preciosos poco a poco a precios, que a largo plazo, son atractivos.

 

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