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La reciente subida del oro y lo que no se ha mencionado de la crisis con Rusia…

Desde el 1 de enero de este año el oro ha subido casi 11%. En las noticias se habla que esto se debe a la situación en Rusia/Crimea, etc. Pero la realidad es que el oro ha estado subiendo constantemente desde que empezó el año 2014. No me acuerdo la fecha exacta que empezó lo de Ucrania, pero está claro que el oro estaba subiendo mucho antes que esto sucediera – Ver gráfica:

Gráfica

Gráfica

La razón por la cual el oro ha estado subiendo es que la economía de EEUU sigue mal. Como les he mencionado varias veces en los últimos meses, casi todos los reportes de la economía estadounidense han sido malos y los que han salido positivos siempre tienen algún tipo de revision para abajo en el mes siguiente. Por eso es que los metales están subiendo: la gente se está dando cuenta que la economía no se mejora, por mas que The Fed siga imprimiendo (devaluando) el dólar.

Ahora bien, en estos días Janet Yellen, la nueva presidente del Banco Central, tendrá su primera reunion como la encargada de esta institución. Lo mas probable es que ella disminuya la cantidad que The Fed imprima este mes en unos $10 mil millones. ELLA TIENE QUE HACER ESTO. Es decir, en su primera reunion ella no puede echarse para atrás porque los mercados se asustarán, el banco central perderá credibilidad y veremos el dólar (y los bonos soberanos de EEUU) con problemas. Ella hará el recorte que el mercado está esperando, pero de aquí y en adelante lo mas probable es que ella deje de hacer el “tapering” y mantenga las cosas en estatus quo o que se eche para atrás y aumente la cantidad de dólares que el banco central imprime todos los meses (esto podría tomar varios meses)!

El precio de los metales preciosos nos indica lo que está pasando con el dólar. Lo interesante de Crimea, que nadie ha mencionado, es que durante esta crisis el dólar no ha subido. Tradicionalmente, en una crisis como esta, el dólar subiría como un “safe haven”. Esta vez esto no ha pasado – los «safe havens” han sido el Euro, el Franco Suizo, el Yen y también los metales preciosos. Esto para mi es en mensaje mas claro que cualquier comunicado que saldrá de The Fed esta semana…

445 Replies to “La reciente subida del oro y lo que no se ha mencionado de la crisis con Rusia…

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    Estimado Joey como siempre muy atinado en tus comentarios. Lastimosamente, algo me dice que no dejaremos de hablar sobre Crimea el resto del año y como esto afecta al Dolar Americano.

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