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Joey Levy
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Historia de dos ciudades

Abajo encontrará dos «headlines» que lo dicen todo.

¿Cómo puede ser que las ventas de los carros que manejan la clase media caen en picada por el mal tiempo en EEUU, pero las ventas de los autos que manejan la clase alta subieron a un record durante la misma época? ¿Cómo puede ser que las tiendas de la clase media estén reportando ventas débiles y cerrando sus puertas mientras que las tiendas de lujo estén reportando ventas increíbles?

La razón es que la política monetaria de EEUU (mantener su tasa de interés artificialmente en 0% y de imprimir miles de millones al mes en dinero «de la nada») no está ayudando a la economía real, sino simplemente inflando el precio de activos en los mercados financieros y de los bienes raíces. Y como la gente en la clase alta es la que tiene cuentas de inversión y propiedades, ellos se benefician cuando estos activos suben en precio. No es porque esta gente esté vendiendo su casa para comprar un auto, sino porque están pidiendo prestado contra el valor inflado de su vivienda y/o su cartera de inversiones para comprar artículos de lujo. Y como la gente de la clase media, en la gran mayoría, no tienen estos activos, ellos no pueden hacer lo mismo.

Tarde o temprano, todo esto explotará. La economía de EEUU está enferma y el doctor (The Fed) sólo sabe dar una medicina: inflación. Esta medicina está manteniendo al paciente vivo (o por lo menos una parte del paciente), pero matándo el resto del cuerpo lentamente.

La pregunta de un millón es: ¿Qué pasará con todo esto cuándo EEUU o deja sus tasas subir o se vea forzado a subirlas por los inversionistas a nivel mundial? La respuesta para mi es clara: Tendremos la explosión de dos las burbujas arriba mencionadas (stock market and real estate market), la economía de EEUU entrará en una depresión de nuevo y The Fed tendrá que o dejar todo colapsar o imprimir más dinero. Les aseguro que van a imprimir más dinero.

Por eso es que recomiendo siempre mantener su patrimonio diversificado y con una porción fuera del dólar. Si no lo ha hecho, todavía está a tiempo…

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