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The Fed hace un «mini-taper

Ayer el banco central de EEUU anunció que bajará el ritmo de sus compras de bonos soberanos e hipotecarios estadounidenses de $85 mil millones al mes a $75 mil millones al mes. Para los que no siguen estas cosas, esto es conocido como «tapering» en el lenguaje de la comunidad financiera. Hace unos días envié un «tweet» en el cual mencioné la posibilida de esto y que, si se hiciera «tapering», sería algo muy simbólico. De hecho, esto es exactamente lo que pasó:

Para entender mi «tweet» es importante poner todo esto en contexto. Imagínese que hay un drogadicto que fuma marijuana y toma 5 gramos de cocaína todos los días. El drogadicto tiene años diciéndole que va a dejar la drogas pero cada vez toma no solo más drogas, sino drogas más fuertes. Finalmente, después de un año y medio de estar fumando y consumiendo cocaína todo los días, la persona le dice que ha empezado el proceso de dejar su adicción. Ahora sólo pretende fumar marijuana y tomar 4.5 gramos de cocaína por día. ¿Qué pensaría usted? ¿Confiaría en esta persona y su habilidad de dejar las drogas mientras sigue consumiéndolas?

Lamentablemente, hasta la fecha yo personalmente nunca he escuchado de una drogadicto que deja drogas de esta forma. Aplaudo el hecho que el banco central haya bajado la cantidad de «dinero de la nada» que están imprimiendo por mes, pero la fria realidad es que, como el drogadicto, esto no es un proceso tan fácil. La economia de EEUU depende 100% de tasas de interés artificialmente bajas y al quitar esta «droga», la misma empezará a colapsarse de nuevo. En ese momento, el banco central tendrá que tomar la decisión más importante de su historia: aguantar el dolor del síntoma de abstención o «withdrawal» (es decir, dejar entrar una recesión horrible que a largo plazo ayudará a la economía a autocorregirse) o tomar más drogas (hacer el opuesto de «tapering» y aumentar la compra de bonos mensuales). Digo que esto es la decisión más importante en la historia de The Fed porque dependiendo de lo que hace esta institución, su credibilidad está en juego. Y si The Fed pierde su credibilidad, empezará la crisis que siempre he estado advirtiéndoles todos estos años.

Con respecto a las inversiones fuera del dólar, mi recomendación es de mantenerlas como están y si quisiera aprovechar el hecho de que los mercados no se han dado cuenta de todo esto, hay oportunidades de comprar metales preciosos y otros activos «reales» como recursos naturales, «commodities», etc. a precios muy atractivos.

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