En estos días estoy seguro que han escuchado noticias acerca de una posible suspensión de pagos en los bonos soberanos de Los Estados Unidos (EEUU) debido al hecho que ciertos miembros en el Congreso estadounidense (más que todo por el lado Repúblicano) no quieren subir el «techo de la deuda» del país. Para los que no siguen estas cosas, el «techo de la deuda» funciona de la siguiente manera:
«Si el Departamento del Tesoro no es capaz de recoger la suficiente cantidad de dinero para pagar los gastos del gobierno federal, este puede ser autorizado por el Congreso a endeudarse, es decir, a pedir dinero para pagar el déficit del presupuesto federal. Antes de 1917, el Congreso autorizaba al Tesoro cada vez que éste necesitaba pedir dinero, pero es a partir de la Primera Guerra Mundial cuando el Congreso crea la figura de «techo de deuda». Desde entonces el Tesoro puede tomar prestado la cantidad que requiera hasta un techo de gasto, una cantidad fija (salvo algunas excepciones contadas). Para cambiar esa cifra máxima de endeudamiento el Departamento del Tesoro tiene que pedir al Congreso un cambio de legislación y el Presidente tiene que ratificarla y convertirla en ley» Fuente: Wikipedia
¿Es cierto que si no se sube el «techo de la deuda» EEUU tendrá que «default» en sus obligaciones? La respuesta es: ¡No! Es totalmente falso decir esto. El gobierno estadounidense, en este mismo mes de octubre, recaudará casi $200 mil millones en impuestos y sólo tiene que pagar $25 mil millones en intereses. Es decir, la Tesorería de EEUU tiene 8 veces la cantidad de dinero de lo necesario para pagarle a sus acreedores. Está claro que pagar los intereses de las deudas del país no es un problema…
Ahora bien, una mejor pregunta es: ¿Si el gobierno puede hacerle frente a los pagos arriba mencionadas, porqué el Presidente Obama y el Congreso están amenazando con una suspensión de pagos que podría colapsar a la economía norteamericana (si esto pasara el dólar caería en picada, la tasa de interés en dólares se dispararía, etc.) y posiblemente lleve el mundo a otra depresión económica? La respuesta es sencilla: Ni el Presidente ni el Congreso quieren vivir dentro de su realidad financiera y su estrategia es de asustar al pueblo americano (y el resto del mundo) para que piensen que si no se sube el techo, todo colapsará. En inglés, se dice que todo esto es un «scare tactic».
La realidad es que ellos quieren seguir gastando dinero que no tienen y saben muy bien que si no se sube el «techo de la deuda» estarán forzados a tener que cortar gastos por otro lado en el presupuesto (ejército, beneficios de seguro social y el sistema de salud, programas sociales, entidades del gobierno, entre otros). Esto tendría un alto costo político y el 99% de los políticos siempre va a cuidar a sus intereses antes que hacer lo que es correcto a largo plazo.
Lo mejor que le podría pasar a EEUU es que no suba el «techo de la deuda» y que empiece a poner su casa en orden. Tiene que reducir el tamaño del gobierno, bajar el deficit fiscal, pagar sus deudas y dejar de imprimir billones en dinero «de la nada». Lastimosamente, nada de esto pasará. Le garantizo que los políticos, a última hora, subirán el techo de la deuda de nuevo. Y le garantizo que lo único que esto hará es postergar los ajustes que se tienen que hacer y permitir que el gobierno se meta más «en el hueco».
La fria realidad es que EEUU está quebrado. Si no me cree, simplemente preste atención a lo que dijo el mismo Presidente Obama hace unos días: «Si no subimos el techo de la deuda no podremos pagar nuestras cuentas.» Uno no tiene que ser economista para saber que una persona que no puede pagar sus cuentas si no recibe un préstamo está quebrado.
Finalmente, hay algo que casi nadie está mencionado. Y es que el gobierno de EEUU no fija su «techo de deuda» – son los acreedores que lo hacen. Al ver que los políticos estadounidense no tienen ni el coraje ni la voluntad de corregir los problemas económicos del país y que el Presidente está amenazando con no pagarles devuelta el dinero que EEUU les debe, tarde o temprano ellos decidirán: 1.) No prestar más dinero a EEUU o 2.) Seguir prestando a EEUU pero con tasas de interés MUCHO más altas para cubrir el riesgo de o no ser pagado o de ser pagado devuelta en una moneda que haya sido drasticamente devaluada. En ese momento tendremos la «real» crisis que Obama y el Congreso están mencionando – pero la misma sería por culpa de ellos y será peor de lo que vimos en el año 2008.
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