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El desafío mental era enorme

Entresacado: “Diálogo sobre la economía nacional en un lejano país”.

Pablo Rodas Martini

Un país del cual solo sabía su nombre y que quedaba en África, pero nada más, ni el nombre de su capital, ni su moneda, ni lo que más aprecio de un país, su historia. Cuando recibí la invitación para ir unos días me apasioné con el viaje. El continente me era desconocido; siempre había querido visitar el Mahgreb, los países árabes del Mediterráneo, y el Sub-Sahara, la inmensa África negra.

Lo primero fue empaparme más sobre ese país que tiene un inmenso lago al que le dan el sobrenombre de “calendario”, pues su largo máximo son 365 km y su ancho máximo son 52 km. Revisé estudios económicos y sus estadísticas en el World Development Indicators del Banco Mundial, la mejor publicación estadística que existe en el mundo. Iba comparando sus cifras con las de Guatemala, aunque pude haberlas contrastado con las de cualquier otro país centroamericano; me topo con la sorpresa de que ese país delgado, que cuesta distinguir en los mapas de África, era muy similar a Guatemala en dos aspectos: casi la misma población y un poco más extenso.

Pero ahí terminan las comparaciones; cuando cotejo sus cifras económicas y sociales con las de Guatemala, que de por sí son precarísimas, resultan mucho peores. La pobreza (menos de $2 por día ) es del 91%, en Guatemala es el 26%; la agricultura llega al 31% del PIB, en Guatemala es el 13%; solo el 9% de los hogares tienen electricidad, en Guatemala es el 81%; el 11% de la población está infectada con HIV, en Guatemala es el 0.8%; y el PIB de Guatemala, con población y extensión similar… es ocho veces superior… pero ellos tienen una criminalidad mucho menor. En otras palabras, “somos un país pobre pero mucho más rico y más violento que ese lejano país”.

Me invitaron al primer Diálogo Nacional sobre la Economía de casi tres días de duración. Además de la presidenta y del vicepresidente, también participa el gabinete en pleno y los representantes de los organismos internacionales y los principales embajadores. Los invitados somos cerca de 10 y provenimos de lugares muy diversos: EUA, Reino Unido, Dinamarca, Singapur, Indonesia, Sudáfrica y dos latinoamericanos.

Escamoteándole tiempo al tiempo me sumerjo los días previos en el conocimiento de su situación económica y social pues tengo la “mala costumbre” de que en esos eventos no ceso de pedir la palabra y de disparar una batería de comentarios. ¿Qué se le puede sugerir a un país mucho más pobre que cualquier país de Centroamérica y que además sufre de la condición de ser un país mediterráneo, es decir, sin acceso al mar, como Bolivia o Paraguay? El desafío mental es enorme, un nudo gordiano, un acertijo casi irresoluble.

Estudios económicos han demostrado que los países mediterráneos arrancan ya con desventaja para crecer respecto a todos los demás países; la excepción son países europeos como Suiza o Austria porque evolucionaron casi en el centro del mundo, pero los demás que existen en Latinoamérica, África y Asia tienen dificultades para crecer. La disciplina económica es muy locuaz respecto a las economías pequeñas y abiertas como las nuestras, pero muy parca cuando le agregas… sin acceso al mar.

Procuro dar el mayor número de ideas posibles, evitando a toda costa sermonear o sugerir simples copias de modelos, pues no hay nada peor que encasillarse en recetas. Mi mensaje final en la residencia de la presidenta es que el país necesita de una estrategia dual: una hacia EUA, que tiene el African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) para África; Europa, con su acuerdo de Cotonou; y China e India, cuya importancia se acentúa vez más en África; y otra hacia los países vecinos y socios de Southern African Development Community (SADC) y de Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), los dos acuerdos de integración a los que pertenece (por cierto, Bolivia y Paraguay comercian más con sus vecinos sudamericanos que con EUA o Europa).

El evento termina. Cobertura amplia por la prensa nacional. Te preguntas por qué estás asesorando a un gobierno de un país tan lejano, ¿no deberías estarlo haciendo en Centroamérica?.. Así son a veces nuestros países y nuestros gobiernos… y no te puedes meter a la fuerza si es que no te invitan para aconsejarlos… quizás en algunos años con un nuevo gobierno se dé la oportunidad, y si no ocurre… podría ser un próximo… o el siguiente, y si nunca llega… siempre será un gran gusto imbuirse de la historia y la economía de países como Malawi. La economía puede llegar a ser como la medicina, si un paciente enfermo no quiere ayuda, siempre se puede atender a otros que sí lo deseen.

*Pablo Rodas-Martini tiene un Ph.D. y un M.Sc. por el Queen Mary and Westfield College de la Universidad de Londres.

 

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