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Gran anacronismo: la relación con Taiwán

Pablo Rodas-Martini

“Comerciar con China debe ser una urgencia, no un deseo”. Este fue el mensaje que, en su Twitter, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), destacó de mi presentación del 11  de noviembre en Londres. Durante mis cinco años en el BCIE llegué solo a decir que Centroamérica tenía que ver más hacia Asia y en particular hacia China, pues no podía ir más lejos, ya que Taiwán es socio extra-regional del Banco. Después de la recesión mundial de 2008 y 2009, que afectó tanto a Centroamérica, y de la posible recesión en Europa en 2012,  que podría afectar la todavía lenta recuperación de EE.UU… ya no podía contenerme. Centroamérica necesita que se le hable sin tapujos ni rodeos.

Durante mi intervención había abordado cuatro temas, pero dejé el quinto y mas sensitivo para el final. El silencio era completo en el pequeño pero repleto auditórium de Chatam House cuando mencioné que lo que iba a decir a continuación podía implicar que tuviera que dejar mi cargo en el BCIE.

Mi mensaje de ese día lo resumo así: Centroamérica no puede ignorar más a China, la segunda economía del mundo y la de mayor crecimiento. Los países sudamericanos crecen en gran medida por su mayor relación con China. Centroamérica no puede continuar con una política exterior que es un resabio de la guerra fría. Costa Rica ha sido el país mas visionario hacia Asia y ya cuenta con tres tratados de libre comercio: China, Singapur y Corea del Sur, y es parte de algunos grupos de trabajo de la Asociación de Países del Pacífico (APEC). En el estudio que realizamos en 2004 con el economista líder del BID para México y Centroamérica (Manuel Agosin) y con un catedrático en Japón (Neantro Saavedra), concebimos a China no solo como amenaza -como casi siempre se le visualiza con miopía en Centroamérica- sino también como oportunidad.

Ahora, ya sin ninguna limitación institucional, puedo señalar que Centroamérica comete un craso error en continuar su relación diplomática con Taiwán. Solo un puñado de micro-países mantienen esa relación diplomática (los centroamericanos somos los países “grandes”). Todo el mundo esta muy consciente que la relación diplomática y comercial que importa es con China. Los taiwaneses, con la excepción de algunas declaraciones de su presidente cuando arriba a las tomas de posesión en Centroamérica, siempre actúan tras bambalinas. Dan dinero a los presidentes, construyen edificios para las cancillerías, otorgan donaciones, han firmado TLCs (que casi no sirven) y se han colado en las organizaciones de la integración centroamericana. En otras palabras, tienen cooptados a los gobiernos de la región.

Costa Rica tiró a la basura esa relación anacrónica. Ya tiene montada toda una estrategia para aprovechar el gigantesco mercado chino. Han identificado una gama de productos agropecuarios que podrían exportarle, abrirán cafeterías ticas en ciudades chinas, están detectando nichos en los cuales podría darse inversión extranjera de China, y desecharán nuestra  anquilosada política migratoria pues aspiran a captar mucho turismo chino en el futuro (optarán por la doble revisión: si EE.UU. y la Unión Europea ya le otorgaron visa a alguien de China, le darán ingreso automático, pues es absurdo replicar el proceso). Y si se trata de recibir donaciones: China les regaló el nuevo estadio de San José, y en un tiempo jamás visto en la historia de Costa Rica (con albañiles traídos de China).

Eso se llama gobernar con visión de largo plazo. El resto de Centroamérica, sin embargo, piensa en minúsculo: soñamos con una oficina comercial en Pekín. Panamá es el único país de la región que puede darse el lujo de seguir con Taiwán pues China necesita mucho el canal (y Panamá casi solo exporta servicios, no bienes). En el gigantesco encuentro de la Asociación Americana de Economía, que acaba de concluir en Chicago (con premios nobel de economía y más de 11,700 economistas de todo el mundo, y desde donde envío este artículo), hubo 49 presentaciones sobre China (solo superada por las presentaciones sobre EE.UU.), 22 sobre India, el tercer país mas abordado, y 0 sobre Taiwán. El famosísimo Gary Becker resumió el sentir de la profesión económica: “La expansión de China es el acontecimiento mas relevante del mundo de los últimos 30 años”.

El dicho es que “París bien vale una misa”. En mi caso, en Londres, tomé la decisión de que: “Un consejo apropiado para Centroamérica, bien vale… un cargo de Economista Jefe”.

*Pablo Rodas-Martini tiene un doctorado y una maestría en economía por el Queen Mary and Westfield College de la Universidad de Londres. Hasta el 15 de diciembre de 2011 se desempeñó como Economista Jefe del BCIE.

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