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  • 4 marzo, 2016
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En América Latina el agua debería ser más preciada que el oro

Por Mauricio Garrón, director de análisis y estrategias de energías en CAF –banco de desarrollo de América Latina

Puede que la afirmación expresada en el título de este blog les parezca un tanto chocante y pretenciosa, incluso hasta errada.

Pero antes de sacar conclusiones precipitadas, déjenme exponer algunos datos que quizás logren cambiar su opinión:

  • En América Latina, la energía eléctrica que se forma a través del agua -la hidroelectricidad- representa casi la mitad de la generación total de electricidad;
  • La región tiene el20% de la capacidad hidroeléctrica mundial y Brasil es el segundo mayor productor del planeta;
  • Y por si fuera poco, Latinoamérica es uno de los mercados más prometedores a nivel global, ya que hasta el momento solo ha desarrollado el 23% de su potencial hidroeléctrico.

Estas son solo algunas de las razones que convierten al agua en uno de los bienes más preciados y promisorios de la región. Y son también estas razones las que hacen que América Latina sea la región con la matriz energética más limpia del mundo.

Dicho esto, la energía eléctrica generada del agua puede ayudar a garantizar la sostenibilidad de los sistemas energéticos de la región, hecho que ayudaría a paliar los efectos del calentamiento global, ya que se trata de una fuente de generación libre de emisiones de CO2.

Grandes oportunidades para el mercado hidroeléctrico latinoamericano

Según la Agencia Internacional de la Energía (IEA), para el año 2035 la energía hidroeléctrica incorporará cerca de 277 GW de capacidad hidroeléctrica instalada (lo que supondrá más potencia eléctrica), requiriendo inversiones del orden de USD 258 mil millones.

Esto representa una gran oportunidad para los inversionistas privados, que cada vez están ganando más peso en el reparto de inversiones en energías alternativas, y que se han convertido en un financista indispensable del mercado eléctrico latinoamericano.

Paralelamente, la hidroelectricidad está entre las tres fuentes de generación eléctrica más económicas del mundo y es también de las más baratas entre las fuentes renovables.

Por ejemplo, sus costos operacionales y de mantenimiento son relativamente bajos y, a la vez, se trata de una tecnología madura con una cadena de valor y de servicios asociados desarrollada, lo cual funciona como mitigante de riesgos. Por último, el tiempo de vida útil de este tipo de plantas excede los cincuenta años, permitiendo que el costo del megavatio/hora requerido para amortizar la inversión se perciba menor en el corto plazo.

En el caso de las plantas hidroeléctricas con embalses, la infraestructura hace posible el almacenamiento de energía y la gestión integral del recurso hídrico. Es decir, se puede acumular energía potencial en tiempos de lluvia y luego gestionarla en períodos secos, lo que robustece la seguridad del suministro en el sistema.

Esta forma de almacenamiento de energía a gran escala puede ser utilizada para complementar la generación a partir de otras fuentes renovables, intermitentes por naturaleza.

Algunas barreras

A pesar de los beneficios expuestos arriba, existen en la región una serie de retos para que la implementación de la energía hidroeléctrica sea plena y exitosa.

Entre ellos, los más importantes son:

  • Manejo del impacto ambiental
    En los últimos años se han desarrollado protocolos y normativas ideados para asegurar la sostenibilidad de los proyectos hidroeléctricos, los que pueden contribuir a reducir las preocupaciones sobre el impacto ambiental de estos desarrollos.
  • Alineación de intereses y tiempo de los proyectos
    Es vital que todos los actores involucrados en el campo de la hidroelectricidad -financistas, decisores políticos, compañías contratistas y sociedad civil- actúen conjunta y coordinadamente.
  • Identificación del potencial remanente
    Una de las barreras que enfrenta este tipo de proyectos es la identificación del potencial hidroeléctrico remanente que permita la optimización del aprovechamiento de las cuencas, incluso a nivel binacional. Con las herramientas de medición satelital actuales se pueden identificar con mayor precisión el potencial remanente a nivel de pre-factibilidad.
  • Las economías de escala de los mercados destino
    Por lo general, en aquellos países donde el porcentaje remanente de recursos hidroeléctricos no desarrollados es mayor a la demanda eléctrica local, las inversiones para el desarrollo de proyectos se frenan por no considerarse justificadas.
  • La resiliencia de la infraestructura hidroenergética
    El calentamiento global implicará más sequías y cambios en los ciclos del agua en muchos puntos de América Latina. Esto obliga a mejorar la infraestructura existente pero también al uso de la hidroenergía almacenada o con embalses.

América Latina ha dado pasos acertados para aprovechar el potencial que nos brinda la energía hidroeléctrica. Pero no debemos cesar en el esfuerzo conjunto y coordinado para seguir creando un escenario que ayude a tener un planeta más limpio y un suministro de energía estable y sostenible.

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