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Centroamérica, entre la inversión y la desinversión extranjera directa

La inversión extranjera directa (IED) es el conjunto de capitales de largo plazo que ingresan a una economía proveniente de otros países. En 2012, ingresaron US$9,072 millones por este concepto a Centroamérica. Estos capitales pueden insertarse en las esferas productivas, comerciales y de servicios existentes en la economía receptora. En la región, los gobiernos han otorgado incentivos fiscales para atraer estos recursos, esperando que la IED logre compensar la escasez de inversiones domésticas, privadas y públicas, y ayude a la transferencia de tecnologías, la mejora de la producción y el incremento del empleo.

Sin embargo, los flujos de IED no constituyen únicamente ingresos, pues generan rentas (utilidades), de las cuales una parte se envía hacia la casa matriz en el extranjero. Estas rentas se han incrementado en la región y los crecientes flujos de salida tienden a neutralizar el efecto positivo que producen los ingresos por dichas inversiones. En Centroamérica, los egresos por rentas representaron, en promedio, alrededor de un 64% de los ingresos por IED durante el periodo 2007-2011. Esto quiere decir que de los US$34,095 millones que ingresaron en este periodo, salieron de la región US$21,925 millones.

Guatemala se constituye en el caso más crítico en este sentido, pues durante el mismo periodo 2007-2011 los egresos de rentas fueron casi 1.3 veces mayores que los ingresos por IED, en promedio. Panamá y Honduras le siguieron, con egresos de renta que representaron un promedio de 81% y 68% de los ingresos por IED, respectivamente. Costa Rica (44%) mostró niveles intermedios, mientras El Salvador (25% y Nicaragua (21%) registraron os más bajos.

Esta evidencia muestra que beneficiarse de la IED no depende únicamente de maximizar el nivel de recepción de la misma. Su efectividad debe analizarse en términos del contexto nacional, la actividad económica a la que contribuyan las inversiones, los derrames tecnológicos que tengan, los encadenamientos con otras actividades que generen, su capacidad para fortalecer el empresariado local, los recursos que aporten al Estado para dar sostenibilidad al bienestar y la gobernabilidad de la sociedad, y la cantidad y calidad del empleo que sea capaz de crear.

Respecto de este último punto, la actividad económica hacia donde se dirija la inversión determina los niveles de empleo que puede generar. Se estima que por cada millón de dólares que se invierten en comercio o construcción en América Latina se generan 7 puestos de trabajo, mientras que hay que invertir dos millones de dólares para generar un solo empleo en minería y petróleo. Los centros de llamadas generan 73 empleos por cada millón de dólares de IED, aunque la actividad se caracteriza por proveer empleos inestables. El reto estará en determinar las contribuciones en materia de transferencia de conocimiento e innovación que estas actividades pueden tener en la fuerza laboral.

En vista que mayores niveles de IED generarán crecientes egresos en forma de renta, los Estados no deben simplemente maximizar el ingreso de inversiones indiscriminadamente. Deben desarrollar políticas selectivas para la entrada de aquellas inversiones que contribuyan a diversificar la actividades económicas nacionales, apostando por aquellas que sean capaces de derrames productivos y tecnológicos que impulsen las exportaciones de productos con alto valor agregado, al tiempo que empujan a la mejora del recurso humano y de los salarios, generando así un círculo virtuoso que eleva el crecimiento y promueve el desarrollo. Otro punto a tomar en cuenta en las discusiones sobre la utilidad de atraer IED, es que esta debe tener como principio de su responsabilidad social empresarial, la contribución al fortalecimiento de los bienes públicos, como educación, salud, nutrición, seguridad, justicia e infraestructura, bienes que al garantizar el bienestar y la gobernabilidad democrática, garantizan también mayores réditos privados en el mediano y largo plazo.

Centroamérica: Ingresos de inversión extranjera directa, 2007-2011

(En millones de dólares)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Promedio 2007-2011

Centroamérica

7278

7769

4515

6228

8305

6819.0

Costa Rica

1896

2078

1347

1466

2157

1788.8

El Salvador

1551

903

366

117

385

664.4

Guatemala

745

754

600

806

1026

786.2

Honduras

928

1006

509

969

1014

885.2

Nicaragua

382

626

434

508

968

583.6

Panamá

1777

2402

1259

2363

2755

2111.2

Fuente: Icefi con base en CEPAL (2013). La inversión extranjera directa en América Latina y el Caribe.

Nota: Discrepancias entre total de Centroamérica y parciales se deben a efectos de redondeo.

Centroamérica: Nivel de egresos por rentas de IED, 2007-2011

(En porcentaje de los ingresos por IED)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Promedio 07-11
Centroamérica

58.5

51.8

89.5

69.9

63.2

64.3

Costa Rica

59.7

36.0

73.2

41.3

23.3

44.4

El Salvador

10.3

4.3

47.8

183.8

65.5

25.3

Guatemala

109.9

117.5

158.5

124.2

130.9

127.2

Honduras

57.7

48.5

98.0

58.5

89.7

67.8

Nicaragua

24.3

18.1

27.9

26.6

15.1

20.8

Panamá

85.6

72.7

104.1

77.4

76.1

80.6

Fuente: Icefi con base en CEPAL (2013). La inversión extranjera directa en América Latina y el Caribe.

Nota: Discrepancias entre total de Centroamérica y parciales se deben a efectos de redondeo.

 

Generación de empleo directo de la IED, según actividades económicas seleccionadas, 2003-2012

(En número de puestos de trabajo creados por cada millón de dólares invertido)

Fuente: Icefi con base en CEPAL (2013). La inversión extranjera directa en América Latina y el Caribe.

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