Recientemente Grecia eligió un nuevo Primer Ministro para guiarlos a través de una travesía que se acerca a lo imposible. Aun así el mundo está rodeado se casos que se veían imposibles y que al final fueron solucionados. El panorama que el Primer Ministro, Alexis Tsipras, se puede dividir en lo económico y lo social. A continuación brindo un perfil de sus mayores retos para los próximos años.
Retos económicos:
El punto más alto del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) se registró en el año 2006 con un crecimiento económico de 3.37%. Un crecimiento similar se observó en el año 2009 cuando la economía pudo registrar un crecimiento de 2.62%, algo que no ha vuelto a suceder. Hoy en día, Grecia crece a un ritmo de 0.6%y 0.7% respectivamente. Los últimos dos reportes cuatrimestrales son los únicos que desde el 2010 son positivos.
Por su parte el gobierno sigue muy lejos de poderse financiar ya que su deuda es del 177% del PIB. El desbalance del presupuesto en el gobierno de Grecia es de mil 51 millones de euros, una de las cifras más altas en los últimos años. La cifra anterior lleva a asumir que Grecia seguirá endeudándose y que los ingresos no son suficientes para evitar el riesgo.
Retos sociales:
El último registro del desempleo en Grecia es del 25.30% de la población económicamente activa. A principios del 2009 el desempleo en el país se situaba en un 9%, algo que reflejaba una tasa bastante normal en la historia económica del país. En la misma época los salarios del país, para aquellos que aún continúan empleados se han reducido drásticamente, en un aproximado de 9.6%. A pesar de ello los precios de la vestimenta, la salud y la comunicación se han mantenido variables y en muchos casos han aumentado.
Lo anterior muestra uno de los grandes problemas de Grecia. Falta de empleo, menores ingresos y costos más altos.
Conclusión de los retos:
El primer ministro de Grecia debe de enfrentarse a un crecimiento económico mínimo que es insuficiente para cubrir las necesidades de la población. Casi ¼ de la población no tiene empleo y aquellos que tienen ven como sus ingresos van en disminución por el aumento de los precios en los bienes o por la disminución del pago en las empresas.
Aquellos servicios que brinda el gobierno como seguridad, educación y salud se ven comprometidos ante un presupuesto que cada vez está más desbalanceado a pesar de las diferentes reformas que se han incurrido. Pareciera ser que la última reforma para garantizar más ingresos fue insuficiente para lo que el país necesita.
La Unión Europea, en especial Alemania, le respiran en la nunca esperando a que el país tome un curso. Las opciones que se barajan en la mesa son dos: recuperación o salida de la zona euro. Bajo este panorama de incertidumbre la confianza de los empresarios se desplomó en su lectura de diciembre. El ministro llega en un momento donde no pueden haber errores.
Dr. Garita,
Me parece que su artículo hace una tremenda omisión al no hacer ni remota mención–aún al ser titulado «Los retos de Grecia»–de las implicaciones políticas de la elección de Tsipras. No es sólo que hayan tenido elecciones recientemente. Un análisis módicamente completo debe tomar en cuenta que, más allá de Tsipras, fue Syriza el partido que llegó al poder.
En efecto, los retos que usted menciona se ven magnificados al tomar en cuenta el contexto politico. Grecia, evidentemente, tiene problemas económicos. Con crédito caro, una deuda económica y moral para con la union europea, y un deficit importante, sería difícil (sino inocente) el decir que el económico no es uno de los retos más importantes. De igual manera, socialmente Grecia enfrenta una situación complicada. El alto desempleo es difícil de sostener pacíficamente y la confianza del publico hacía sus instituciones va en relación casi perfectamente inversa al alza de los niveles de desempleo. De nuevo, evidentemente.
Sin embargo, Grecia enfrenta «retos» más profundos. Alemania, y consecuentemente la UE, propone políticas contracíclicas para Grecia. Más que demostrado ha quedado que la austeridad es una pésima–y socialmente peligrosa–idea en crisis económicas del tipo experimentado por Grecia. La consecuencia directa es la llegada de Syriza al poder y su promesa electoral de abandonar, de una vez por todas, las sofocantes políticas de austeridad impuestas sobre el pueblo griego. Dentro del mismo contexto económico, pero al cual usted llama «social,» se encuentra el problema del desempleo. Al muy largo plazo quizás sería posible disminuir el desempleo estructural por medio de políticas neoliberales. Sin embargo, me parece que tal solución estructural llegaría en el punto en el que–parafraseando ligeramente a Keynes–toda la gente desempleada muera de vieja o hambrienta.
Si hablamos de «retos,» estimado Dr. Garita, entendamos que todos los retos ocurren dentro de un contexto socio-político y económico complejo. No nos engañemos con análisis simplistas del tipo que usted propone. Él problema de Grecia no es (sólo) la corrupción, como usted lo ha sugerido anteriormente. Él problema de Grecia no es netamente económico, como ahora usted lo sugiere. Él problema de Grecia no es ni mucho menos puramente Griego, como sus artículos sobre el tema han, un poco inocente e implícitamente supuesto.
Los «retos» de Grecia son retos puramente Europeos. Son, sobretodo, más ideológicos y políticos que económicos.
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