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Joey Levy
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Lo que la comunidad financiera no entiende

En estas últimas semanas estoy seguro que ha visto numerosas noticias acerca de los problemas financieros de Los Estados Unidos (EEUU). Por un lado, tenemos las peleas políticas relacionadas con el déficit fiscal y el famoso “techo de la deuda”. Por otro lado, la economía estadounidense no logra avanzar, por mas que el banco central (La Reserva Federal) sigue estimulando la misma con la impresión de $85 mil millones al mes para artificialmente bajar las tasas en deuda soberana del país y también de su mercado hipotecario.

Lo mas impresionante de todo esto para mi es como la comunidad financiera (analistas de Wall Street, los economistas a nivel mundial, corredores de bolsa, etc.) no entiende que nada de esto va a cambiar hasta que EEUU tenga una crisis monetaria. En ese momento, los políticos estarán forzados a lidiar con sus problemas y tendrán que dejar de seguir las políticas económicas que han arruinado lo que, en su momento, era la economía mas productiva del mundo.

El 99% de la comunidad financiera todavía cree que La Reserva Federal hizo lo correcto en artificialmente estimular la economía y que nada más es una cuestión de tiempo para que la misma se recupere y que no se necesite de la ayuda del banco central. Lo que no entiende esta gente es que es IMPOSIBLE para La Reserva Federal dejar de estimular (imprimir dinero “de la nada”). La razón es muy sencilla: la recuperación (crecimiento del PIB, disminución en la tasa de desempleo, etc.) depende 100% de una tasa de interés artificialmente baja. Si se quita el estímulo, la tasa de interés en el país se disparará y todo empezará a colapsarse de nuevo. Al pasar esto, La Reserva Federal estaría forzado a echarse para atrás (es decir, reiniciar la impresión de dinero de nuevo con el fin de bajar las tasas de nuevo) para evitar otra crisis financiera. En términos sencillos: estimular una economía con dinero “de la nada” es una calle de una vía, y peor, una calle sin salida.

Para los que dicen que esto es solo teoría, les pido que se acuerden de lo que pasó hace unos meses cuando el banco central dijo que estaba “pensando” bajar el ritmo de la impresión de dólares (en inglés se decía que iba a hacer “tapering”): en términos de unas semanas la tasa de interés en bonos soberanos de EEUU se disparó 67% y en los bonos hipotecarios se subió 33%! El alza en las tasas fueron tan violentas que varios miembros del banco central salieron a contradecir el mensaje del Banco Central, diciendo que lo que dijo el Presidente del Banco no era correcto, que se le malinterpretó y que incluso estaban considerando aumentar la cantidad de dinero que imprimen en el futuro.

Esto es muy importante para nosotros en Panamá. Digo esto porque el emisor de nuestra moneda se encuentra en una situación donde sólo hay dos salidas: 1.) dejar de intervenir en los mercados y permitir que las tasas suben, causando una recesión horrible que eventualmente ayudará a la economía a reestructurarse y recuperarse o 2). seguir imprimiendo con el fin de postergar la recesión y eventualmente esto causará una crisis monetaria y una crisis de deuda soberana en la cual las tasas se dispararán a niveles que son casi impensables (nota: en los años 80s esto mismo pasó y la tasa de interés llegó a niveles de casi 20%). Le aseguro que los políticos tomarán la opción número 2, seguirán imprimiendo dólares y que esto eventualmente causará las crisis arriba mencionadas.

¡LA RESERVA FEDERAL NO PUEDE DEJAR DE IMPRIMIR! ¡JAMAS VAN A “TAPER”! ¡ES MAS, LES ASEGURO QUE AUMENTARÁN LA CANTIDAD DE DINERO «DE LA NADA» QUE IMPRIMAN! ¡Y TODO ESTO CAUSARÁ UNA CRISIS MONETARIA!

Allí está. En mayúscula y en negrita. Después no digan que nadie les dijo.

Para proteger su poder adquisitivo de todo esto, recomiendo que siga diversificando parte de sus ahorros e inversiones afuera del dólar (canastas de otras monedas incluyendo metales preciosos), que siga invirtiendo en activos “reales y tangibles” y que siga repagando sus deudas denominadas en dólares antes que la tasa de interés en EE.UU. se dispare.

253 Replies to “Lo que la comunidad financiera no entiende

  1. Paola Díaz dice:

    Hola, buenas tardes.
    Me parece muy interesante el análisis que hace usted sobre la caída del dólar y en consecuencia el aumento de la tasa de interés en EEUU y la crisis.
    Actualmente con todos los cambios que han tenido en el dinamismo económico, ¿cree usted que el dólar siga siendo la moneda dominante a nivel mundial? O ¿cuál es escenario económico para los próximos años?

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